Worswick: I don't know who Jess Beltz is but I am in the mood to defend China regarding their possible currency devaluation question.
<<<(3) How long can the Chinese continue before they have to devalue the Yuan? They've said they won't, but I bet they'll have no choice in the end, to avoid largescale riots due to massive unemployment.>>>
What Mr.Beltz seem to have over looked is this,and that is China's huge 'Foreign Currency Reserve' estimated to be close 150 billion dollars or so.Add to that Hong Kong's currency reserve which is much higher than China's,don't recall exactly how much. So we are looking at a total reserve of over 300 billion dollars or so.Pretty damn healthy by anybody's standards. So Chinese devaluation can only occur by desire or choice,at least for a while. A devaluation due to structural problems seems unlikely.I am not saying it couldn't happen but unlikely for the time being.Any attack on Hong dollar also will be met with vigours defense and an attack on Yuan is not very likely due to obvious reasons.The fun really begins when Taiwan joins the mainland, they got close 90 billion dollars in reserve,but we got time for that yet,but when they do it will be AWESOME.
(My analysis is only as good as the freely available public information)
As for Semis,I know I have Intel,I am pretty bullish on Gordon Moore
and Andy Grove.Their new chip nick-named the 'Merced' is going to be
a huge success according to my information. |
