Re <<DRD>>
(1) By my figuring, DRD went down because ...
(1-i) peak-ish and CEO admitted fully-priced
(1-ii) power issues in S Africa
(1-iii) CoVid uncertainty in S Africa
(1-iv) USD strength
(1-v) gold pricing hiccup
(2) None of the above changes much of anything important
(2-i) gold quantity / quality in the tails, and cost of processing
(2-ii) processing plant goodness the minute power stabilises (and S Africa finally working the issues)
(2-iii) CoVid? S Africa going into Southern Hemisphere summer, with a young population, and so far given the wide & fast spreading, so good
(2-iv) USD strength must be stopped, and Team USA knows it, and shall certainly do something about it
(2-v) Gold pricing must be fixed by Teams all around the world, to go high and then higher
(2-vi) Still paying dividends and remains no-debt
(3) Given above, am comfortable
(3-i) I would be @ 25% (on current price) allocation of brokerage a/c to DRD should I be put and not called, come 20th November. Current actual allocation @ 17%.
(3-iii) assuming am put and not called between now and 20th November, the shares put to me would be at adjusted (payment for shares, less put and call premiums booked) would be 9.24
(3-iv) current cost basis of shares already held is south of 6.50
(4) As comparative, my notional exposure to TSLA short is 4X liquidation value of brokerage a/c :0) - yes, a bit high
(4-i) Shall continue to add to short TSLA calls over the next few days / weeks, on any material expression of last gasp strength
(4-ii) Fully intend to book all profit 20th November, and pay for DRD put shares with walk-around funding resulting from TSLA cloud-ATM, get some physical (presumably still cheap at that juncture), and re-group for renewed / rejuvenated cloud-ATM operations
(4-iii) Presumably onward cloud-ATM extractions from DRD shall be accompanied by extractions from TSLA
(5) I tend not to let good ideas go to waste for they are few during any given playable period, and
(5-i) 2020 has been the year for short DRD puts & covered calls, early, in material wallops, around the then whatever money, i.e. at strike-15 I account for 70% of the open interest calls and 50% of the puts, entered into between June and September - I am the market and have no clue who my counter parties might be, except that they like to buy what I love to sell :0), and
(5-ii) Progressively short TSLA OTM calls of short time to expiration, long TSLA nearer-the-money calls of same short time to expiration, and modulate / recalibrate as necessary day after night after day
(5-iii) Wager large on GLD puts, shares and calls
(5-iv) Siphon goodness by adding to physical gold from above protocols, for win-win-win outcome, each in own time, for short and longer terms
(5-v) Essentially short TSLA but safely, and long DRD but judiciously, and accrete to physical metal hoard, for the long term savings program
(5-vi) Short TSLA calls at 700 & 800 strikes before 20th November is safe (last night I did some 660 strikes but closed at small profit, intending to reload as I believe TSLA should bounce in / within next few days
(5-vii) Short DRD calls at 15 & 17.5 strikes in greater quantities than shorting puts at 15 and 12.5 be judicious
(6) Compared to 2017-2019, 2020 has been easy
(6-i) However, it was critical that I did not get hit by the March debacle, and that I was massively net short due to TSLA position.
(6-ii) Such be coincidence enhanced by luck, presumably undergirded by astute agility, facilitated by history-is-important experience, and helped along by the Fed largess, Trump protocol, and Trade+Tech+CoVid Cold War 2.0
(6-iii) I believe DRD might still go down a bit as the general market would crater ala March-April, but otherwise good value, especially with gold to be boosted irrespective of who wins the POTUS election, contested or smooth.
(6-iv) Should either political party unlikely but possible manage a landslide, buy gold, lots and lots of gold, and them buy some more. Same w/ copper.
Let us hope 2021 is as bountiful :0)
Bottom line, re <<I had an outstanding order to buy DRD @10.74. Missed it by 6 cents. I think the bottom may be in and I might just pull the trigger tomorrow>>
... I want to say you are right knowing full well what I have to say be only intuitive and does not stand up to technical discourse never mind fundamentals dialogue.
But / and however, the broader market concerns me.
Only critical what Sir Armstrong has to say, and he earlier noted for this week Message 32944140 |
