Dale, about AWRE, which I mentioned in a previous post.
The early news about the MSFT, INTC, CPQ grand alliance
over ADSL involved AWRE because these 3 were using AWRE
stuff in demonstrations to drum up support. The technology
in Universal ADSL is not exclusive to AWRE as far as I can
determine. Once the UAWG (see uawg.org ) made
an announcement, everybody who could conceivably claim to
be involved with ADSL came out with announcements of
forthcoming products. Also see adsl.com
AWRE seems to be early in getting a shippable product,
but, unless the RBOCs move with uncharacteristic speed,
it appears that everybody will be in production by the
time real demand is there.
One note: US West today announced deployment of ADSL
service to about 40 areas by this summer. They are using
the NetSpeed ADSL modem - I don't know if AWRE has a licensing
agreement with them. (US West had previously been using
Pairgain xDSL stuff in their Phoenix trial, don't know what
changed) At least one RBOC is not acting like
a lumbering giant. The kicker is the cost. $40/month buys you
256k speed, while 768k speed runs $80. Prices for 1, 4, & 7M
download speeds were not released. Plus, I believe you
still need an ISP for another $20/month.
Back to topic: AWRE has several licensing agreements with
big names like 3Com, ADI, Ericsson. They have a product
to ship this quarter. But they don't have a unique niche.
In fact it is getting more crowded every day. On the AWRE
thread, there were some synopses of Tuesday's conference call,
and perhaps Lucent has a deal with AWRE (only rumor). Can a
small company find a place in a very competitive market?
Having used @Home service at my sister's house (and been
connected via T1's for years at work), I know that ADSL
will be a desirable product. The cost, especially compared
to @Home and other cable offerings, will be key. The market
for this is definitely a growth one.
AWRE just doesn't have a strong enough position to justify the
30-40% spike it got from the initial announcement. It is a
short until it returns to the $11-11.50 range, IMHO.
Another way to view it is as a possible takeover candidate
for one of the big guys. Don't see that happening with the
proliferation of DSL out there.
Comments?
jg |
