I am new to this thread, but I posted this in yahoo messages:
I checked EDGAR online, and here is what I
have found. Assuming YHOO has not done any splits, according to their first
10-Q in 8/96, there were 26 million shares outstanding. For XCIT, as of
5/96, there were 10 million shares outstanding. So, though YHOO's revs
have grown faster overall, they have given out 20 million shares to get that.
XCIT has given up only 6 million shares in 18 months, so I do not anticipate
them giving up more than 6 million this year.
When we split, we'll have around 32-40 million shares outstanding(still less
than YHOO). Continuing with what I said in previous post, the flip side is
true-when we have higher eps to the losing side, remember that the losses
are checked against lower total number of shares. This inflates the loss eps
and can look bad.
I think we can do $120 in 12 months. In less than twelve months, we went
from 10s to 40s. We can do it again. Compared to
YHOO, we are undervalued. When we split and get closer to their total
number of shares, analysts will further compare our
valuations. AND, at the time 12 months goes by, YHOO, and XCIT, will
have grown even more. So, wherever YHOO is or was(now $60 on 46
million shares and $65 million trailing 12 months revs) XCIT may be
checked against them. On market cap comparison, XCIT should be
at $172 right now, but we are slightly lower in revs department. That is the
only real difference. Later when YHOO gets to
$100, they'll have market cap of $4.6 billion. We will probably still trail
YHOO(but if we don't, watch out), but we will
certainly attain appropriate valuation with another triple increase in price.
AOL has seen it, the ISPs are seeing it, YHOO, has seen
it, and I think we will, too. In fact, the target of $120 is a conservative one,
since $172 is equality.
YHOO has tripled this year. 20 to 60. As we approach the first positive eps
for a quarter, XCIT shares will move even more
boldly. Perhaps CS First Boston has spotted the trends I have spoke of
here, and they are wanting to get involved now. This is a
great industry, and it is only at the starting gate. I will not be married to it. I
will watch. If there are problems, I will sell
till they are resolved. No stock will go straight up if there are problems.
Look at AOL in late 1996, but she recovered and off
to even more fantastic numbers.
Don't get caught up in the hoopla of everyday moves. I see that XCIT has
already kicked butt in the last 12 months, but we
should be smart enough to know that there were setbacks along the way. 12
months from now, new investors will be wowwing the price of
$60, post-split, and wonder if its run its course. Some are saying it now at
40, like they did at 20 and 30. No doubt EVERY stock
gets doubters when it runs high, but that doesn't stop the stock from rising. Some think it is time to sell when a stock is at its high. Well, if it is going to go to $120, it will hit alot of new highs along the way...
Those that baled at 30, look where we are now. Soon
we will be in the 50s, and 40s we will shrug off as a joke. Again, in 12
months, we will be wowwing the surge, but it will
still go higher if the fundamentals, the industry, and the market are all in
place.
IMHO
Comments??
Mr. Miller |
