< then professional analysts and the fund managers should be able to demonstrate that consistently >
Well you know the reasons why they don’t… Not enough time,
I think that you are very naive that you have more time than professional analysts who work on this whole day and additionally may have teams preparing data for them.
Forget sell-side analysts. For practically any stock (well, maybe except some Swedish micro caps, but even then I'm not sure) there's someone on Internet who have done way more in-depth DD than what you or I or anyone on SI has done. Do they outperform? I don't really know, but I haven't seen a proof that they do. At least I've seen crushingly in-depth reports on stocks that underperform with pretty similar frequency as I've seen in-depth reports on stocks that outperform.
I'm not fully on Paul Senior's side in this discussion. I'm on the side that 99%+ of people should invest in indexes. Including people who come to SI or CoBF. But if you don't want to listen to this, then it's your choice. You can do deep DD, shallow DD, concentrate, diversify, buy value, buy growth, etc. Any of these might work for you or not. Mostly, I'd suggest to do what you think is fun, interesting, and possibly learning experience. Since this might give enough benefit even if you don't outperform indexes (which is IMO the likely outcome).
Peace. |
