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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)
CIEN 243.66+2.2%Jan 15 4:00 PM EST
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To: craig crawford who wrote (1168)1/29/1998 8:33:00 PM
From: CJ Quantumwell  Read Replies (1) of 12623
 
<<I know LU claimed to do 206 in a lab. I'm sure they can do 80 channels in the
real world. I wonder how much it's going to cost. I'm sure if LU can do 80
channels CIEN probably can too.>>

I doubt this very much. CIEN nvever has "the most advanced" technology in the lab. The hero experiments usually happen in Bell lab or NTT first. The reason they are successful now is becasue CIEN push 8 channel WDM into the commercial markets first and then 16 channel DWDM rigth after that. Those quick actions make big boys such as Lucent and Nortel totally offguard. Many big boys demonstrate DWDM in the lab at that time but never thought to go for some actions. After one and half years, big boys are catching up and CIEN is threatened. BTW, CIEN doesn't have 10Gb technology. Nortel and Lucent can crash CIEN in the near future.

The other thing which impresses me about this Lucent 400G stuff is the reach - more than 600Km. I couldn't remember the link length for the hero experiment 206 channel but I know it is much shorter than 600Km. 80 channel in 640Km at 2.5Gb/s rate ( ignore where is the other 200Gb/s from ) is very very good if they pass the field trials by the end of this year. Remember, optical network engineers look for
bit rate * distance.

CJ
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