Jim and all ESVers,
The latest (1/29/98) analysts' opinoins on esv:
Brokerages Rating EPS(98) EPS(99) 12m Target
Goldman outperform 2.45 3.25
Alex Brown strong buy 2.57 +.17 3.08 +.08 54
Schroders Rec. list 2.64 +.07
Jefferies buy 2.76 3.76 55
First Boston buy 2.69 +.27 45
Dain Rauscher Neutral 2.62 +.24 3.46 +.20
Oppenheimer buy 2.50 +.10 3.05 +.20
Prudential buy 2.75 +.10 3.50 +.15 52
DJL buy 2.63 +.18 3.35 +.15 54
UBS strong buy 2.75 +.30 3.00 41.50
Robinson-
Hunphrey long-term buy 2.45
The analysts are NOT particularly concerned about ESV's boat business in 1998. Only two analysts mentioned this matter.
Alex Brown:
ESV's marine transportation business had another strong quarter,
with revenues of $26.7 million (up 44% year-to-year) and gross income of $16.6
million (up 58%). The company has a fleet of 37 anchor-handler, supply and
mini-supply vessels in the Gulf of Mexico, which currently contribute 10% of
ESV's total EBITD. Several of these vessels are on long-term contracts at
attractive rates. On its conference call with analysts, management commented on
the recent news that Tidewater intends to defend its market share in the event
that supply exceeds demand as a result of new vessel capacity arriving later
this year and next. ESV noted that it does not focus on market share and, in
the event supply vessel rates fall, the company has the option to use some of
its vessels to service its drilling rigs, particularly in international markets.
As a result, we do not expect the fundamentals of the boat business to have a
significant impact on the outlook for ESV.
UBS
Our outlook for ENSCO's Marine Transportation earnings reflects likely
continued momentum in workboat and mini-supply dayrates into early spring, but
a softening in industry dayrates for these vessels in 2Q98/3Q98 due to the
potential for heightened pricing pressures in the US Gulf of Mexico given the
likely newbuild additions during this period and the recent indications that
Tidewater (TDW-$40 13/16-NF) intends to defend its industry leading market
share as newbuild vessels are added. Specifically, we project the average
dayrates for ENSCO's 24 Gulf workboats at about $8,900 in 1Q98, $8,000 in 2Q98,
$8,300 in 3Q98 and $8,600 in 4Q98 versus a 4Q97 average of $8,625. We also
estimate the average dayrates for ENSCO's 8 Gulf mini-supply vessels at about
$4,200 in 1Q98, $4,000 in 2Q98, $4,100 in 3Q98 and $4,200 in 4Q98 versus a 4Q97
average of $4,368.
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