Most of the news today is about the "theater" of American politics. Biden blasts Trump for "dealing with thugs"... which (even ignoring the obvious in the Biden pay-to-play scandals now unfolding) doesn't mean he's going to refuse to deal with the same thugs ? Does anyone alive really believe being "Trump's good friend" is overly meaningful, or a good thing, for Xi, or Kim Jong Il ? Anyway...
The theater sustains the fiction that Biden has a snowballs chance in hell of "winning" this election. Currently, only 6% of voters are left undecided.. They'll be deciding in context of the first round of Hunter Biden revelations, already out, and the next couple, apparently yet to drop. I haven't checked the news for updates, yet, today...
Voting has already started, though. So there are already trends in data emerging, in a couple venues, that are not all that hard to parse. Last cycle, in the early mail in voting, Hillary led Trump in Texas by 20%, and still lost Texas by that same margin. In 2020, in the same metrics, Trump leads Biden by 10%, suggesting Trump, in Texas, is beating Biden even in the votes cast by the core group of Democrats voters.
The external polls are working on shedding their deliberate pro-Biden biases, now, hoping to end up being not be "too far" off when the results are tallied, and still hoping the bias adopted makes it look like "its close" as election day nears. But, its not close. The media "influence" operations are back-firing, now, with the Streisand Effect amplifying public impacts of recent "unhelpful" news as it is censored... by a biased media.
What the internal polls show, is a massive differential in motivation. Biden is not winning Democrats votes... not inspiring anyone... particularly not the core groups of swing voters that are essential to a win... the youth vote... who are simply opting out of participation. Trump has Republican voters wound up and enthusiastic. Republicans are expanding the base to include traditional Democrat constituencies: Latino, Asian and Black voters are all voting Republican in record high numbers. None of that should be a surprise... to anyone paying attention. Trump's rallies are well attended, upbeat, contagiously enthusiastic, and hugely positive in tone... actually FUN. Biden, when he does get out, can't draw a crowd. In his appearances, Biden is about as charismatic, enthusiastic, positive in tone, and appealing... as Eeyore. Layer in well justified concern with his fitness... constant gaffes... and the breaking news with emerging proof of corruption... ?
Other massive shifts occurring matter even more than made apparent in the early returns. Democrats registrations are down by 8%... while the Republicans are up a couple percent... a really significant impact occurring in the underlying "affiliation shifts"... which are highly correlative with future changes in voting patterns. You don't leave the party, much less switch parties... and then vote for those guys you just left.
Shifting loyalties indicate changes more significant than just the impact on the next election. That metric is far and away the most predictive of current AND future election results... it not being shown wrong in predicting any past election, ever, when there are shifts of the type and magnitude occurring now.
Part of that is clearly attributable to the Democrats enablement, support and advocacy of the "protest" violence. The BLM/Antifa issues, with Democrats overtly saying "vote for us if you want the violence to stop"... a massive misjudgement of the character of American voters... had already ensured Democrats loss long ago... unless Republicans somehow went even more stupid... which they haven't. Democrats belated effort to "stop"... when the polling turned against them in result... wasn't matched by any policy reversals... so the trend sustained an accelerating pace in abandonment of the Democrats by centrist voters. In the cities, de-funding the police... proceeds into practice... even though 80% of voters oppose it ?
Democrats strategy shift to use directed mail-in votes with changed "rules" to enable partisan advantages, even if hoping to win a massive early lead among dead voters... appears it is failing. Democrats do tend to vote by mail, and vote early... but, their voters just aren't cooperating: they're not turning out. Not only is the count of votes voted, in the venues that do count the votes as they arrive, not going their way... there aren't enough of them coming in to enable them to turn it around. If the trend proves different in states that don't count as the votes arrive... you'd have to explain why ? The total of early votes coming in is smaller... and the percentage of those votes won by Democrats is smaller... while the clocks ticking are working strongly against Democrats. How many "mail in" votes can they be "holding back"... to try to create dynamic post election day shifts in the count ? Probably not enough to matter in current context... and, then, only at some significant risk of running afoul of the laws.
The registration shifts, and the number of Democrats changing parties and voting Trump... today has the Democrats percentage of the total vote shrinking each day the early voting continues.... losing another 1% to 2% today alone... already down by a couple percentage points in both Ohio and Florida... trending down in parallel in North Carolina... and that's all before the Republicans core group of voters even start voting... as the Republicans do still tend to vote, in person, and on election day.
Odds are... trusting in the other metrics far more than polls... not only does Trump win re-election "handily"... it looks more and more like he does so in a "Red Wave" election... with significant coat-tail effects.
Democrats options for preventing that occurring... narrowing down to trying to disrupt the mail, or stage other disruptions... trying to steal the election by continuing to produce "votes" long after the election is over... or trying to disrupt the "count" to prevent a result, or even by refusing to accept the outcome. They've made it clear enough some of that is what they're planning... but haven't made it clear the effort will have any positive impact, other than likely ending their own voters trust in them, permanently... while destroying their brand. Any of those sorts of efforts, to convince anyone, and then succeed, would depend on first "making it appear close" in fact... which is pretty hard to do in the face of a landslide election, with your own voters voting against you... as you'd need more votes than there are voters just to "get close" ? But, it would also depend on people accepting that "close" result was real, and a natural event... and not a function of manipulations of process... which is much harder to achieve, when you're telling people how it is you intend to deliver that result... without getting more people to vote for you. Then, the last element in the play book... more violence... which, while likely to occur, is a big part of why people are voting against them.
For foreign observers, the focus shifts from "will Trump win"... to considering the nature of a second Trump term... and how it might change dramatically from the first term... as the constraint of Democrats persistent efforts in obstruction, tolerated in the first term, are removed... in part by the election result, and the voters mandate... and in part by an acceleration in post-election accountability. |
