(sorry, long post as usual... ¯\_(?)_/¯)
"Who has time for 40 deep dives on 40 different 0.5% positions?"
I agree Elroy! Too each his own. A more Lynch-like approach may suit some, and I am finding more and more that I am one of those "diversifiers". I just can't keep from buying a few more than I necessarily need, and I can't seem to do that mammoth research to feel 1000 % certain that I know what I am doing. Also, I just don't know enough yet. If I have 80 positions, each one is of small enough significance to not worry me.
I, like you, also find that the ones that has those extraordinary gains are just those same ones that I wouldn't have dared to buy if it hadn't been a comparatively small part of my portfolio. I am often surprised at which ones take off substantially in the short term too (often the ones I hesitated to buy because they seemed like too much of a gamble (even if I really believed in them)). I find that such an approach removes my human chicken-ness.
Curiously, I feel much more certain regarding macro stuff. F.ex., when oiled reached its bottom, it just looked like free money. The down side appeared to be so laughably small, and the upside rather noteworthy. It seemed so obvious – and it was – an easy, substantial gain in like two months time. Same w/ silver – when the gold to silver ratio reached all time high, I bought silver – seemed like the obvs thing to do – then gradually sold off a little as the ratio closed (still holding though) (also bought a little gold bc seems like the dollar and paper currencies will collapse eventually (Ray Dalio and Peter Schiff agrees w me on that).
I still like those assets, compared to others. Especially silver and other metals/elements.
One obviously still needs to diversify one's bond substitutes (precious metals) though. But I'd rather own a little oil, a little silver, a little gold, and some other equivalent super tangible assets, than stocks right now.
Also, I feel like the S&P500 and especially the NASDAQ is in for a BIG crash. What you guys think? I'm afraid that the pattern will be similar to that of the 1930-1939 (or 1970-1979) period. There are simply too many signs that scream "get out!!". The unlimited easings, the general superoptimism, the valuations, the completely unprecedented global situation.... I try to leave all of my positions, and land at ~ 25 % exposure to stock market, and then have
~ 25 % precious metals / other super-hard assets / oil / Commodities – grains and the like, etc. etc.
~25 % cash equivalents
~ 10 % BEAR S&P & NASDAQ
~ 5 % BEAR TSLA
and the rest, I'm not really sure... :-) Maybe "pure cash". To be ready for when the true buying opportunities come.
Or maybe (more likely), stocks. Because there are almost always some value opportunities for the small investor. I find enough too many to keep me from taking my money off the table, at any rate. (Although I really think I should...)
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Also, Elroy, can you please talk a little about SIMO? :-) |
