GR8 / Jeff, re: AAPL plans to use QCOM modems in the iPhone until at least 2024
Below is another article on the same subject which includes the PDF link to the QCOM- AAPL settlement, and the statement on page 71 of that doc referencing such. Actually per the statement, the headline should read...(....thru at least thru the end of 2024...). More importantly, from the recent BoA reports it should be noted that in addition to QCOM’s modem
“...Apple intends to commercially launch (i) New Models of Apple Products during the time period between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021 (the “2020 Launch”), some of which use the SDX55 Qualcomm Chipset, (ii) New Models of Apple Products during the time period between June 1, 2021 and May 31, 2022 (the “2021 Launch”), some of which use the SDX60 Qualcomm Chipset, and (iii) New Models of Apple Products during the time period between June 1, 2022 and May 31, 2024 (the “2022/23 Launch”), some of which use the SDX65 or SDX70 Qualcomm Chipsets (each a “Launch” and collectively the “Launches”)....”
More importantly, from the recent BoA reports, it should be noted that in addition to QCOM’s 5G modem which BoA estimates at a $20 ASP (vs $10-$13 for 4G version) BoA estimates that RF could add another $30-$60 in QCOM silicon content per iPhone depending on the number of mmWave modules. For EPS forecasting, BoA uses an average of $45 for added RF content.
So to summarize, per BOA QCOM iPhone content increases from $10-$13 to $65 per iPhone using the $45 average. At the high end the content increases from $10- $13 to $80 per device.
BoA QCOM revenue and EPS (proforma) estimates-
.......................FY19.....FY20.....FY21.....FY22
Sales ($B).....$19.4.....$21.3.....$29.6.....$31.9
EPS...............$3.54.....$3.99.....$7.37.....$8.34
BoA’s June QCOM report forecast 5G handset sales by 5G technology-
.......................CY19.....CY20.....CY21.....CY22.....CY23.....CY24
Sub 6............................120.2.....289.0......414.6.....535.9.....645.6
mmW.............................38.1........91.9......144.4.....188.5.....236.9
total...............................158.3.....380.9......559.0.....724.4.....882.5
Interestingly, the BoA June report estimated that only 50% of the iPhone modules would be enabled by mmW and QCOM mmW content would decline to 50% in CY22 as Skyworks / Qorvo “catches up”.
Hmmm, BoA’s latest report states that all iPhone models will be mmW.
One wonders if BoA will soon revise their assumptions of Skyworks/ Qorvo “catching up” by CY22?
Final thought- Most of us were disappointed with the royalty rate part of the agreement being at only the standard 3.25% without apparently any penalties for AAPL’s bad behavior. Perhaps, the silicon content gains offset some of that “disappointment.” |
