An election prediction ? More of a situational awareness update.
The first rule in trying to cheat in an election is "make it close"... to enable contesting it by hook and crook.
This election looks like it will not be close. Hooks won't work. Crooks will get what's coming.
Trying to contest an election that delivers a decisive result ? Good luck with that desperation move.
Voters oppose corruption as much as violence in the streets, it seems... Who could have guessed ?
In the first debate... Trump jammed the channel, forcing rules changes in the second. Those changes were a great advantage for him in this last debate... where his own communication was not jammed by Biden or easily disrupted by the "moderator" participation.
Trump, when left free to get his points across, wins...
Trump thus won both debates with a proper strategy taking them as a whole and bending them to his will.
In result, the mantra that "no one will change their mind over this" proved untrue. Undecided voters, now less than 6% of the population, broke hard for Trump after the debate, widening his advantage.
The momentum established now... likely to be sustained through election day. Trump, is coming ashore and driving up the beach in an amphib... while Democrats defense now consists of desperately trying to prevent the beach from eroding... the contrast exposing a huge disconnect in strategies... only one of which is likely to enable winning. Most of the outcome unfolding now seems it is not mostly about skill in execution... but mostly about a winning strategy in opposition to losing strategy... the winner aligned with the wind and tide, the loser forced into wasting energy working against them.
Every metric I see, other than media-driven polls skewed by over-sampling, suggest Trump in a landsliide...
Many races thought well positioned to advantage Democrats, with a potential to flip the Senate... are instead breaking with Trump, now leaning to advantage the Republicans. Alabama will revert Republican... while two or three "safe" Democrat seats in places like Minnesota... which were already "toss up" races before this debate... are more likely to be R wins now with the undecided voters breaking right and solidifying choices.
Watch the shifting patterns in electioneering from here. They'll reveal what the participants see coming.
If Trump sustains momentum and keeps working as hard as he typically does... he might win control of the House, too, with a big coattail effect... dooming Democrats plans to "win the election after the election".
If that happens, chaos comes to a quick end.
Democrats beach defense is faltering on growing awareness re the "fake news" flotsam problem, polluting the beach with masses of trash. Those piles of trash are now exposed as a Democrat driven issue, that seen as a real danger by voters now, even before they put a value on the shift from piling trash deeper, to "real news suppression".
That leaves the biased media exposed, hung out to dry, caught censoring the free speech and opinion of a MAJORITY of the population, leaving the Democrats and the media rabidly foaming at the mouth, still pitching the proven false "Russia, Russia, Russia" narrative for the win ? LOL!!! A majority of voters are just rolling their eyes now, while Democrats are struggling just to keep the dwindling number of faithful from abandoning them.
Too soon to call it a Red Wave election still... that outcome depending on a huge number of House races, each with its own dynamic. But the trend is Trumps friend, now, and there is a huge and growing potential for that Red Wave to land... and take the trash off the beach when it does.
Choices have consequences. Section 230 open ended liability protections: GONE.
At this point, it appears there is no viable path left open that allows Democrats to stop the erosion, or control the beach, given the wind and tide are working together with their opponents, and the storm that's coming... and against them. |
