Technical analysis for shorts & longs Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 690.38

+0.4%

Dec 24 4:00 PM EST

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robert b furman

To: robert b furman who wrote (53281)	10/23/2020 2:58:30 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 69227

Looks like a lot of traders bought at this level based on volume by price and there is strong technical support at this level based on the number of times it has tested this range in the last few years. It looks like you have to go back to before 2018 before you get prices below $40. Alright for a start position at this level but also no hurry to get in. I suspect it will take a year to 18 months if they decide to outsource some production as TSM and the other large fab Samsung are starting to becapacity constrained. It took more that 3 years for Intel to realize they were not solving the 8 nm of less issues with their existing Fabs. Essentially they have to scrap those Fabs now and start from scratch again if they want to solve their production issues at higher densities. If they go that route they are looking at another 3 years before they have volume production again. Bright spot is if they want to compete on price, which would kill margins, the next release of procesors are competitive on performance with higher density AMD processors if you believe the marketing material. I have not have a chance to look at any objective reviews so it may all be hype. Even if they can compete on performance the higher density technologies mean you can get more cores on a wafer so the yields are going to be better for AMD, so competing on price would hurt profitability significantly. Keep in mind 3 years is about the time the pendulum will swing the other way if the pattern on the shifitng technical advanatage plays out like in the past with AMD. AMD really need to start to build more of a war chest if they want to change that dynamic.

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