Simon:
Things are spooky. However, take a look at the CSCO chart. I am using DBC's enhanced charting for 180 days. In mid-December it began forming a nice little symmetrical triangle with volume decreasing as the pattern formed ( of course it was the holiday season too). Then there was a classic breakaway gap from the triangle. CSCO then looked like it was going for an end run. However, that stopped at the apex of the triangle and has not looked back since. Anyone standing in the way of this bullish pattern took an awful beating.
Take a look at AXP. It formed a nice head and shoulders at the top of an advance. I noticed it too late and got there after the pattern played-out. However, I still was thinking about a short position on it last weekend. I went to their financial statements and found the American Express Bank (AEB). AEB does its lending in SE Asia--nearly $2.5 billion worth to businesses. Ha Ha Ha, I said--Asian exposure. Well, I could not get my act together since I did not have any confirming overall market signals and never placed a postion. Of course AXP took off with better than expected earnings--so much for the Asian crisis. (However, I will check on AEB again to see what happened.) If you are a charter, keep an eye on AXP. Look at the action at the top of the right shoulder and as it went down. I think there are other charters that play this stock too. It has some other nice formations and gaps.
At this point, who knows what will happen. Maybe, we will get a CSCO type move after a breakout of these patterns. If Alan wants to chase after the crazies that push the market up, he is invited to the chase. If I get the right signals, I will be as crazy as anyone else. I think I can outrun him. But if he is still behind us when we run out of steam and turn around, he better be wearing afterburners. |
