Bob, I don't think I am giving Fleckeinstein too much credit. I do not agree with his accessment about Cymer's business will stop someday and certainly do not like the idea of shorting INTC (if that is true). However, I think he deserves quite a bit credit for envisioning sales less than 600 lasers in 1998 and the foresight of customer inventory build-up. Now both of these are facts, while Akins was arguing with him about the meaning of "bulbs" and announced he Akins is the expert in this field and leave him alone in forcasting 600 lasers. In this battle, I certainly feel Fleckeistein has the last laugh and I am not enjoying every minute of this laugh because I was siding with Akins.
Akins himself admitted that they are learning in managing a public company. I feel there is something good coming out of this battle too, such as a more conservative atitude from the management towards forcasting (10~15% drop is conservative in my view and the statement in the buy back release regarding employee plan is also honest and conservative - I highly praise those attitude).
I also sensed after listening the CC that Fleckeinstein is not laughing at all and he was actually very polite. I am happy to see that all sides have seemed reconciled their differences and going forward, hopefully, Akins will be a better CEO from now on.
As a shareholder, my initial reaction to yesterday's news was "Fire Akins." After a few hours of thoughts, though, I believe it is a critical time for me to show up with some patience and also tolerance to the mistakes the company management has made. I am in a position to look beyond April 1, 1998. If DUV lasers are still promising technology-wise as they have declared so far, and if there is no other catastrophical extinction of technology or very serious ASP erosion other than the Asian push-out, I will be a happy shareholder. So will be everybody here in longs.
One more thing I like to mention on this thread is, Bob, I believe many of us here on this thread are just too blindly stubborn. I am saying this crowd is definitely including myslef. I have failed to listen to the market and failed to accept the opinions of others in a fair perspective, including those opinions from analysts and experts. For me, like Akins, I am trying to do a better job in the future. |
