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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (13617)	1/30/1998 9:31:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) of 18056

Zeev- I think we may not face such a scenerio come lets look at bastion of world demand US and Europe together nearly 800 million consumers will soon see their pockets swelling with some extra cash- The balanced budget in 99, US against a projected deficit of of 350 plus for 98 will translate into lower interest rates, lower taxes and higher home pay will this not mean a higher demand and may be some inflationary pressures against expected deflation- now come with me to Europe and lets see what do we have in store for us there depressed demand artificially capped by convergence criterion- budget deficit to be 3% of GDP total indebtedness to be 60% of GDP now this year nations will qualify based on strict criterion to be a part of new Euro however these strict limits have been achieved at the expense of recession and slowdown induced by reducing and curtailing expense I would assume that in all reality this jaggernaut of economic expansion will soon start rolling- now I just see some additional income in hands of people in largest spending block of the world- now ASEANs anyway has been 30% saving economies there's are export oriented economies unlike consumer societies so once extra money in hands of people in US and Europe willl increase demand of ASEAN goods which means we will be importing disinflationary trend in economies expected to heat up as result of higher demand this is a perfect combo- the one we are seeing now is a small part of big leap forward- so I think inflation is the thing we will be conscerned with as we move forward and it will be countered by price stability we will import from ASEA-in this merry merry land every one will flourish and we will all live in love and peace thereafter. Thanks Zeev nice to engae in duscussions which may bring some relationship to future market trends.

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