donsurber.blogspot.com Why the polls lie
That the greased polls failed to elect Hillary 4 years ago does not matter. They are doubling down. They fixed the polls. The imaginary margins are wider this year.
Why do they lie?
Because there are no consequences for lying. Nobody got fired after the 2016 debacle. No one apologized. No one got left off the Real Clear Politics Average because they were wrong. Nope, it is business as usual.
The pollsters said Hillary would win the popular vote by 3.2 points. She won by 2.1 points. The pollsters then say that was within the margin of error.
Wrong.
The margin for error in a poll of 1,000 may be 3 points, but a poll of 10,000 has a margin of error of less than 0.5%. The sum of the people polled in the 10 polls in the final Real Clear Politics Average was 18,677.
They also blew state race after state race. They said Hillary would win by 6 Electoral College Votes. She lost by 74. (After faithless electors voted, the margin was 77.)
The pollsters went all in this year and now have Biden up by 7.1 nationally.
The final Economist/You Gov poll had Hillary winning by 4. Now it has Biden winning by 11.
The pros know better.
Lee said, "When a poll comes out with one candidate, in this case Hillary Clinton, winning by 11 points when the winner of the race is the other candidate, that is not an outlier, that is bad polling and makes our entire industry look bad. I called on the American Associated of Public Opinion Research to crackdown on egregious polling to tighten standards for firms that clearly don't understand the landscape of Pennsylvania and that guys like Chris and I trying to do quality work, Chris' last poll in 2016 was in the margin of error. Ours showed the race a statistical tie. When others had the race at 11 points. Do you think that's voter suppression? I’m sticking up for the industry, we need to crackdown, someone needs to say this is out of control. Just look at those Real Clear averages."
He also said the polls are not varying much this year. He sees a close racer in Pennsylvania than the 5.1-point win for Biden 538 predict or the 3.8-point win for Biden that Real Clear Politics projects.
Lee said, "The polls are not moving. We have the race in Pennsylvania two points in the September poll and other firms showing a margin of error that the race is tied, it’s been tied all along in our estimation."
He goes by more than numbers on a spreadsheet, as anyone should. He sees the problem that pollsters face in getting people to admit they are voting for President Donald John Trump.
He said, "The president is out there with the narrative that we shouldn't do polling. Many people called him everything from a misogynist to a racist to everything in between. There are a lot of voters out there that don't want to admit they are voting for a guy that has been called a racist, that submerged Trump factor is very real. We have been able to capture it and I’m really disappointed others have not. In 2016 in the summer and early fall showed Pennsylvania up for grabs. Other firms are putting out leads for Hillary Clinton in double digits, that was never the case in my opinion and we are seeing it happening now."
Charlie Cook of the overrated Cook Report said something in September that I must agree with: This cake is baked. People have decided whether or not they want this president. That much is true. The question is whether all the people who back President Trump will admit that to pollsters.
Asked to call the race, Lee said, "I can't call it. If the turnout is going to be what I think, Trump wins it."
He prefaced it with I can't call it before calling it.
If a pollster has trouble saying President Trump will win, pity the poor voter being polled.
But Lee is not the only pollster who knows most of these polls are garbage. They all do. They remember 2016.
The reasons they are willing to lie for Biden is that if Democrats take back the White House, they will punish those who opposed them
If President Trump wins, there will be no retribution.
In his second term, The Donald must stop being Mister Nice Guy. There must be consequences.
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