EMZ: By now you are probably aware of news reports that the SPLA has captured Wau. If that is true, all of the province of Bahr al Ghazal will soon be in SPLA hands. A look at the map and you can see that if Wau falls the Arakis concession is really in peril.
Now, is this good news, or bad news? It has been my contention for some time that Arakis will never benefit from the OIL found in Sudan. It could, however, benefit by selling its percentage of the concession. I believe that should this be the push needed to end the civil war, an ending that would benefit the SPLA, Arakis will be forced from Sudan and Chevron will be asked to return. Garang has long admitted that the 1983 attack on Chevron was a great mistake. Also, Chevron worked scrupulously to maintain its neutrality during the time it was in Sudan. My hunch is that should the war end, China and Malaysia will receive recompense for its investment, Arakis will be bought out, and Chevron will take over the operation en toto, or at least as senior partner. Finally, you should be aware that the loss of Wau, if it has really happened would be a terrific blow to the North; it is almost unimaginable and leaves not only Bahr al Ghazal open to attack, but Southern Korofan as well. Tumbleweed. |
