trump betting odds improving as chances of winning not good:
"...A pair of polls that accurately predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump would win the election have released
their predictions for the 2020 US election, and it does not bode well for Mr Trump.
Both the Investor's Business Daily/TechnoMetrica poll (IBD/TIPP) and University of Southern California
Dornslife/Los Angeles Times poll (USC/LA Times) predicted that Mr Trump would succeed in 2016, when
many other outlets and forecasters were sure that Hillary Clinton would win the election... Both polls now
predict that Mr Trump will lose the election..."
independent.co.uk
"...Dave Wasserman...one of the very few political seers who predicted —in mid-September of 2016, no less—
that Trump might very well lose the popular vote and yet win the electoral college.
...Trump is not just toast, but burnt toast.
...how is 2020 different than 2016?
Dave Wasserman: There are a couple of important differences. First of all, at the district level, the polling
that we’re seeing is pretty consistent; it’s in line with the national polls that suggest that Donald Trump is
underperforming his 2016 margins [by] anywhere from 8 to 10 points, with few exceptions. Now, there are a
couple of exceptions: One is in really heavily Hispanic districts. [These] are places where Donald Trump is
approaching or even exceeding his 2016 performance. But we also are seeing in really wealthy suburbs or
highly white-collar, professional suburbs—even in traditionally conservative metro areas—that Joe Biden is
doing 10 or more points better than Hillary Clinton did.
...Collin County, Texas, voted for Mitt Romney by 30 points [in 2012]... suggest Joe Biden could carry that
county in 2020.
...There are two other very important differences between four years ago and now. The first is that Biden
has had a much more stable lead than Hillary Clinton had. ...And we’ve seen the 65-plus vote, in particular,
blow wide open. Joe Biden had been ahead by five among seniors for much of the year. Now his lead is
more like nine. Keep in mind, Donald Trump carried seniors by five in 2016.
...But the second important difference is that there are far fewer undecided voters heading into the homestretch.
...[in 2016] is the polls chronically undersampled Trump’s base of support, and that led a lot of the media
astray. I don’t think pollsters have completely solved the problem. We’re not looking at perfect polls today.
... We could still see a polling error in Trump’s favor this time around. The problem is that it would have to be
a lot larger than the one we saw in 2016.
...But we have reason to believe that pollsters have addressed some of the methodological issues that led
to the huge “misses” we saw in 2016..."
vanityfair.com |
