| | | Tenchu's Thoughts: How COVID-19 Can Spread Even With Masks
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Masks help, but they don't prevent transmission 100%.
This link leads to a wonderful article with graphics showing how, even if people wear masks, the coronavirus can spread in an indoor area with poor ventilation:
english.elpais.com
Three scenarios are explored.
Living room with six people, one of whom is infected
- Without masks, and with everyone in the room talking loudly, the other five people are at risk of getting infected after four hours.
- With masks, four people are at risk after four hours. (This is important to note. Masks only reduced the number of people at risk by one.)
- With masks, a lot of ventilation, and the meeting cut down to two hours from four, only one person is at risk.
A bar with 15 patrons and three staff members. One patron is infected
- Without masks, 14 customers are at risk of infection after four hours.
- With masks, 8 customers are at risk after four hours.
- With masks and good ventilation, and with time limits on how long each patron can stay, only one person is at risk.
A classroom with 24 students and a teacher. The teacher is infected
- Without masks, 12 students are at risk of getting infected after two hours.
- With masks, 5 students are at risk.
- With masks and good ventilation, and with the class shortened to one hour, only one student is at risk.
Keep in mind that in all three scenarios, social distancing did not matter. Aerosol transmission means the coronavirus can be evenly distributed all around the room. Of course, it takes time, which is why in all three scenarios a timeframe of a few hours is used. But the bottom line is that you can stay six or more feet away from an infected person and STILL get infected, if you share the same indoor space for a few hours.
Even with masks on.
"But but Fauci said masks don't help!"
"But but Europe is experiencing a resurgence!"
Yeah, and it's because the science on COVID-19 transmission is still a work in progress.
First we thought that COVID-19 can only be transmitted via water droplets, even on surfaces.
Then we thought that COVID-19 can only be transmitted via close contact with an infected person, like within six feet.
Now we know that COVID-19 can linger in the air for hours at a time, and that on top of social distancing and mask-wearing, we also need to properly ventilate indoor areas.
Of course that's easy for a California guy like me who lives in a relatively mild climate, but in places like New York or Europe where the weather is turning colder, ventilation is a lot harder to maintain. Hence we still need to limit indoor gatherings.
A world of know-it-alls
But in a world where Everyone Knows Everything, how do you get the message out? The left thinks just wearing masks is enough. The right thinks wearing masks is useless, and there's nothing we can do to slow the spread.
The truth is that most people don't know and don't understand how complicated the issue is. And even if we started improving ventilation everywhere, will that really make a significant dent in COVID-19 transmission?
No one really knows for sure.
The Remedy To Bad Science
But I do know that the remedy for bad science is BETTER SCIENCE. And unfortunately most of the public still believes in bad science.
Hence I feel it's my job to help spread BETTER SCIENCE. And yes, I know that by labeling my post "Tenchu's Thoughts," most people are just going to skip over it. And those who don't probably won't spend the time to read it in its entirety.
But if you got to this point, I urge you to spread the word about COVID-19 and aerosol transmission, because I feel that this will be THE single most important piece of knowledge in countering the resurgence that we're currently seeing.
And maybe, just maybe, we can get past this stupid ass pissing match over face masks.
Tenchusatsu |
|
