HI Catlady; I agree that people who say the market just can't be
called don't know how and think every one is a dumb or dumber than
they are. BUT, in calling the marke "knowing when it can't
is the first thing. Eliminating thoes days or weeks when you can
see mixed signals just make it nothing but a guess is the first
rule. At the race track out of 12 races I generally can quikly
see the "toss ups" and don't even handicap them. Most half the
races are "toss ups" in thoes I may play the long shots "BUT"
depending on the crowd that day. If they are others also playing long
shots I pass, as the odds on the long shots drop to much just as
the windows close. It's easy to see if that is happing after the first
race or two, if so it's a no long shot day.
Often out of the 12 races I will only find 3 or 4 to bet on.
I see "hooked" gamblers all the time going to the window on
every race..in the long run they lose their shirt.
Sometimes I bet more often than I should, but at least I catch
myself at it and back off. So yes the Market can be called,
but I find it is less than 50% of the time, and on the 50%
that can be reasonable called you do good if you hit 80% of thoes.
If you can hit 80% of the time you can do OK , but you won't
make 80% if you try to call every race. Keep in mind the
20% you miss has to be made up for, by more than 20% of the
winners..it's the old, lose 50% and you have to double
just to get even trap. A 20% loss takes a 25% gain to get you
back even then you have expence too..playing the short side
is harder than playing the long side, the curves are not the
same, and all other things being equall getting in and out
of shorts offers less time and it is harder to exploit
the same move down as one up. Untill a person sees that they
are kidding themselves. Also the risk being short is always
greater than a long one, ( all other things even ) a stock
can only fall so much, but risk to the upside loss in a short
is unlimeted.
Message 3301236
besides the above, over time I've seen that playing calls
is more profitable as an average. If you see some one "hung up"
on playing puts know they are "hooked" and you can not trust
"hooked" people to tell the truth, not that they
want to lie, but they "kid" themselves to much. They don't
admitt to losses ( like the alcoholics who hides their booze )
they often hide it so good sometimes they can't even find it.
<G>
Right now I have to many mixed siganls, there is a little down
sign for today, but not enough to take a chance on. Expence and
all and I would not want to stay short over the weekend, to
much risk for likley gain, risk/gain ratio is like the odds
on the board at the race track picking more winners than
lossers don't always put you ahead. If I bet six races
with $2 bets and only get 1.5/1 odds as they are favorets and if
I win 4 I make $4 profit, the 2 I lose takes that right back.
so playing the favorets you have to win 5 of 6 to make
money, and if your that good you only make 16% on what you
risked. <G> ( not any of the pros I know can win 5 of 6 on a
regular basis, as to much can go wrong ) so you got to get better
odds, and that can't be forced it's up to the crowd you have
on any given day, some days they spread the odds so bad, that
by the time the track takes it's cut there is nothing worth
bettng on. The same is true in the market via hedge funds
if real active they reduce odds so that across the board,
you get more knee jerking than a trend.
Jim
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