| | | For now, what I see is "more of the same"... in terms of "reformed QE" or "central bank generated stimulus" being used to sustain the pseudo-stability... meaning bad days in reality are often good days in the market now... with that imposed by a stability generating function in lieu of real market functions. It has worked, thus far, to fend off errors in central bankers miscalculations (once they figured out why QE wasn't working)... and it has worked to fend off a market crash, once already... and has been liberally employed since then, now almost routinely... with fewer objections over time, and more Pavlovian market responses. They've used it in compensating for virus impacts, off and on since February... and for the failure of the Congress to pass another round of fiscal stimulus, recently. I don't see anyone anywhere who really wants that changed right now... the consequences of that being too horrible to contemplate... for everyone ? And, even those who accept and anticipate that bubbles must pop.... understand the real consequences of tipping the global economy into depression... and don't want to be seen as the one sneaking up there with a pin ?
They're actually doing a better job of it now... since figuring out the errors that had made QE not work quite right. That's not me advocating fiat bubble blowing... or being blind to the risks ? But, so far, they've apparently fended off a much worse global economic catastrophe that could have happened... and still might... but hasn't yet. So, the currency moves seem to be more about perception of U.S. political risks rather than about potential policy changes or economics ? The dollar might reverse those moves suddenly upon a resolution of the political risk... independent of the other outcomes other than "risk off"...
But, what's the relationship of the dollar to the moves in the other markets ?
We're now we're back to re-inventing the recent conversation we had on timing bubbles popping and winning at games of musical chairs ? We're still well short of going full MMT implementation. But, we're still a tad wobbly in terms of economic recovery catching fire with the virus surging again now (or maybe not so much ? ) The issue of the day really seems it is confidence in U.S. political terms only, rather than issues economic... even while some focus on the economic risks inherent in potential for policy change. Biden possibly being mean to frackers... for now a more distant issue others.
U.S. employment figures improved today, but sales have slowed again as small businesses continue to fail ?
Other issues are still out there and unresolved as growing risks too... just sort of being ignored for now... as this bit of electoral theater plays out. Might people being ignoring the cliff's edge being approached at a high rate of speed now... while too intently focused on the kids fighting in the backseat ? The chart of SQQQ suggests... it doesn't really matter... in terms of the market response now being an apparent anomaly... that seems it is easily explained by sudden "forced stability". The steep slope of the short period MACD suggests SQQQ at a low... may be a safe bet for a > 10% move higher based on "charts"... baring any serious craziness occurring before Monday's open, requiring even more "forced stability" ?
The risk is... bad days in reality now are often enough made to be pretty good days in the market ? But, good days in reality now... aren't necessarily bad days in the market ? It's almost exactly the same as the "ratchet" theory in cheating applied when suddenly inserting large batches of "new" ballots for counting ? Things are going so bad... you have to stop the effort in "counting" when its not going your way... and intervene instead with a "correction" applied ? Interventions only intend to move things one way... and you don't want to surrender the gains generated by those shady measures being taken once you do intervene to enable them ?
On election issues... give me a timeline, first, on which the process in the courts will play out ? That would be useful...
Bush vs. Gore... the case heard the last time Democrats tried to win the election through blatant fraud and failed... wasn't heard until December 12... after the Florida Supreme Court ruled on December 8 that the practice of fraud that had been engaged... should be allowed to continue to a conclusion.
But, no reason apparent today to hurry things along any more than back then... ?
Nothing I see now gives any indication we see a timeline on which a near term change in one "set of risks"... forces any dramatic and immediate changes in others ?
Bubbles continue being blown... for now... it seems ? |
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