I think the run as been spectacular.
Has it? I'm just eye balling some stocks, and it seems nice but not incredible.
TXN was about $110 two years ago, now it's $155. That's two 20% gains per year in a row. That's nice but, not crazy.
INTC is down from two years ago.
Then there's NVDA, up 3x from two years ago. AMD up 3x or 4x from two years ago. Those guys are distorting the index returns probably.
So........I don't know if it's an industry issue, or a transformation of the leaders issue.
I think TXN is a pretty good barometer for general semis. Sort of boring, but its semiconductors nevertheless. It's up from two years ago, but not an outlandish amount.
I think MCHP and ADI/TXN and NXPI are good indictors of general semis. Boring stocks that sell lots of boring semiconductors. Many of the mega companies (QCOM, INTC, MU) have a product focus that makes their share price movement less indicative of semis and more indicative of trends in cell phones, PCs or memory.
Anyways, good point. I've always found it harder to determine when to sell than when to buy. So, when all the prices of everything collapse, I'm usually fully invested wishing I had some spare cash lying around rather than full positions in stocks which have just collapsed badly. So I'm no short selling professional. |
