From Briefing.com:
If we take the 40 cent estimate from Deahna for 98 times the long term growth
of the DUV indutry of 28%, we get a fair value of CYMI of $11.2.
Any comments???
CYMER INC (CYMI) 16 5/8 +1 3/8. Almost single-handedly, Jay Deahna has rescued shareholders
of this stock from suffering through another painful day. Last night, the maker of photolithography
equipment reported 2 cents better than expected 4th qtr net of $0.24 a share, but also issued a
less than rosy forecast on the 1st qtr. Citing, of course, the Asia situation, as well as the ongoing
DRAM supply/demand imbalance, Cymer warned that it expects revenues to fall 10%-15%
sequentially, to be accompanied by a $0.10-$0.15 a share decline in earnings-per-share. A First
Call survey of 4 analysts indicates that the company was expected to earn $0.22 a share for the 1st
qtr. Upon hearing that sequential bottom-line results would be at least 36% below expectations, DLJ
downgraded the stock from a "buy" to a "market perform." However, it was the only firm to publicly issue
a negative view on what in most cases would be considered a gloomy report. On the other side of the
fence is Morgan Stanley analyst Jay Deahna . After hearing of the company's plan to repurchase $50
million worth of stock, as well as its glowing optimism regarding long-term prospects, Mr. Deahna
upgraded the stock from a "neutral" to an "outperform." Although he was forced to cut its 1998
earnings projecting by 60% to $0.40 a share, the analyst believes CYMI offers above average
long-term value. His focus is on 1999, when he expects the company to deliver earnings of $1.00 a
share, driven by an acceleration in unit sales, expected to start in the 2nd-half of this year. The
analyst's $21 price target suggests upside potential of 26%. Also upgrading the stock this morning
was Adams Harness, which went from an "underperform" to a "market perform." By the way, that initial
Adams Harness downgrade to "underperform" (or short, whichever you want to call it), issued Nov. 21,
would have made you at least 24%. |
