Hi slacker,
Note EV's are gaining market share in small geographical developed countries (almost 3%).
Note countries with large geographic areas have huge infrastructure lackings and fast recharges do not exist in a competitive refill time period for long trips. I believe the EV market share will slowly grow in urban areas and very slowly in rural area where large geography hinders the desirability of EV's.
Note EV's are an expensive option to ICE alternatives.
That is why EV market share will be low longer in emerging market undeveloped countries.
To extrapolate the growth of EV's with out understanding the burdens, higher costs and maintenance issues regarding battery age and recycling costs, is a pie in the sky poorly thought out estimate.
Emerging markets will mirror the slow acceptance of EV's much like they continually build coal fired electricity generation plants vs natural gas which is much cleaner - it costs more and it gets no consideration due to cost and lack of existing plants as electricity demand is sorely under supplied in emerging markets.
For the dreams of emerging markets, low cost affordable alternatives will be the long term norm (ICE's).
The 30% goal of market share by 2030 means that by 2030 the EV fleet will comprise an average of 7.5% to 10% of the total auto fleet which has an average age of 12 years).
Keep in mind that EV's have been around for 10 years this December and are about 3% of the US car market.
I believe that much like the personal computer and smartphone, both hugely innovative devices that are more than affordable, it takes a lot of time to gain 80% market share, especially when there are more affordable alternatives that (unlike the PC or smartphone) provide all of the capabilities an EV does.
The renewable energy and EV makers are over hyped niche products and will be first embraced in the urban luxury markets.
In 2000 the equity market collapsed, as the internet was going to change the world and at the peak of the hype, Walmart was going to be absorbed by Amazon. Walmart is doing quite well now some 20 years later. They adapted and embraced the internet themselves and are doing quite well (while the internet market share approaches 20% of the total market).
The OEM's with there EV alternatives will be ordered directly and sent to a dealer for courtesy delivery. The current "rage of the market " is the EV HUMMER, with the big sky roof lists at $120,000 and is delivered through the GMC dealer body, mostly because no dealer in their right mind would stock that low volume high dollar vehicle.
As all of these EV's are introduced, they will be luxury car market entries from a full list of OEM makers. Currently the luxury car market represents 13% of the total car market. The car market has been devastated by the popularity of SUV's in all sizes and Pick Up trucks.
If the EV is to be 30% of the overall market in 9 more years, not only do they have to work their way down into the lower priced cars, but then take over the pick up truck and SUV market.
Bottom line, it isn't happening near as fast as the hype suggests.
When the next recession happens, and they do happen, renewable energy makers and ev makers will be the poster children of the equity market collapse.
ALL in my opinion.
Bob |
