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Strategies & Market Trends : Dino's Bar & Grill

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To: Goose94 who wrote (98300)	11/20/2020 1:49:29 PM
From: Goose94	Read Replies (1) of 202707

Crude Oil: Eric Nuttall For the first time in 10 months we can look with confidence towards a post-COVID world in the second half of 2021 and recognize that no sector has been harder hit than the energy sector given the temporary hit to demand. As the market looks through the next few months towards a normalized demand picture in 2021, focus will switch from the temporary impact on demand to the structural impact on supply. The fear of peak demand is leading us to the reality of peak supply. U.S. shale growth is largely over given the need for U.S. E&Ps to prioritize debt reduction, dividends and share buybacks over growth. Further, it is clear global integrateds in their desperate attempt to gain greater investor relevance are meaningfully increasing their investments in renewables while spending less on traditional hydrocarbons, so much so that Royal Dutch Shell said that 2019 will be their high watermark for oil production and BP is allowing hydrocarbon production to fall by 40 per cent over the next nine years. 2020 should also mark the peak of the renewable energy hype and allow for funds flow to return to the traditional energy sector: the world’s population is set to grow by 24 per cent by 2050 (predominantly in non-OECD countries whose oil demand growth will offset all of the decline in OECD countries) and yet by that time hydrogen will only have displaced 4 per cent of global oil demand from today’s levels and renewable diesel at most will have displaced 1 per cent (assuming that every single soybean in the world is used for diesel production versus agriculture). While electric car penetration rates will meaningfully increase due to government policy the actual number of internal combustion engine cars is set to grow for many years to come and EV growth rates will be curbed by a shortage of physical materials. BNN.ca Market Call Friday Nov 20th @ 1200ET

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