wsj.com Opinion | Georgia on Not Enough Minds
Kimberley A. Strassel
Potomac Watch: Republicans shouldn’t take the Jan. 5 runoffs, or their majority in the Senate, for granted. Image: Jessica McGowan/Getty Images
Republican activists remain fixated on the presidential results, pouring heart, money and time into litigation and recounts. In doing so, they risk losing a crucial battle—the Georgia Senate runoffs.
Donald Trump’s campaign is within its rights to question the result, but the prospect of success is growing minimal. And if the president does come up short, the only thing standing between Democrats and dominance of Washington is the Peach State results Jan. 5. A Republican victory in either Georgia seat means a Senate majority and a check on progressive insanity. A loss of both means Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and his party’s plans to reverse tax cuts, pack the Supreme Court, and cement a permanent Senate majority by admitting Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia as states.
Those are alarmingly high stakes, yet many Republicans regard the Georgia runoffs as an afterthought. This complacency has been helped along by a media narrative that Georgia is Republicans’ to lose: The GOP has never lost a statewide runoff. Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff are poor candidates. Republicans have a better ground game. The conservative base is motivated.
That confidence is disconnected from reality. Start with the bizarre reliance on history. Yes, Republicans have won prior runoffs. But Joe Biden just carried the state, the first Democrat to do so in 28 years. The Nov. 3 results prove the left has succeeded in assembling a viable coalition—a mix of urban-gentry and minority voters. Mr. Trump’s base was energized; Georgia’s Democratic coalition more so. A Georgia electorate that sent Mr. Biden to the White House can easily send two Democrats to the Senate.
GOP Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler have been unsparing in their attacks on Messrs. Warnock and Ossoff, hitting them hard on their party’s “defund the police” movement—an issue Republicans used successfully in other Senate races. Mr. Warnock is also dogged by his radical sermons and a 2002 arrest on charges of obstructing a police investigation (which were later dropped). Yet neither Republican is a seasoned or inspirational candidate. Both got tagged earlier this year with accusations of insider trading. And while both were cleared of wrongdoing, Democrats still claim corruption and are using the story to highlight their opponents’ wealth—hoping to demoralize or pull over Trump populist voters.
Ground game? Yes, the GOP was on the ground earlier than Democrats, who initially abjured door knocking because of Covid-19. And a fat lot of good it did Republicans on Nov. 3. The more we learn about this election, the clearer it is that Republicans got out-hustled well before Election Day, by Democrats who changed election rules to set up a mail-in system that favors loose registration and ballot harvesting.
That same set of rules is in place for the Georgia runoff. Progressive Georgia superstar Stacey Abrams got kudos after the Biden win for her effort to register some 800,000 new voters in two years. She’s not done. On Twitter earlier this week, she raved that 600,000 Georgians have already requested their ballots for the runoff, and you can be sure the Democratic machine is gearing up to target, collect and return every one. Where’s the Republican plan to match this effort?
News outlets note that Republicans hold a $28 million ad advantage in the race. That won’t last. This cycle overall featured Democrats crushing Republicans on the money front—and every outside group and billionaire behind that effort is now roaring into Georgia. Media mogul Jeffrey Katzenberg has already hosted an online fundraiser for Messrs. Warnock and Ossoff. Ms. Abrams alone raised them $10 million in four days. ActBlue, the left’s online fundraising platform, is soliciting money nationwide.
But the biggest risk is that Republican base. The GOP is optimistic it can win back suburban and older voters who feel conflicted about Mr. Trump but still want a check on progressives. None of that will matter if GOP voters in rural and exurban areas stay home, angry or frustrated by the presidential election.
And will Mr. Trump engage? It’s certainly in his interest, if he plans to continue being involved in Republican politics. Win or lose recounts, he should want to be able to claim credit for a Georgia victory. And he might remind his supporters that he, and they, worked too hard the past four years to implement sound conservative policy to have it reversed by the Schumer brigades.
Mr. Perdue outpolled Mr. Ossoff by 87,000 votes and nearly hit the 50% threshold for a victory without a runoff. Mr. Warnock underperformed against Ms. Loeffler. But that slight GOP advantage in November doesn’t carry over into January. In the runoffs, the game begins anew, and ground operatives on both sides predict the races will be close.
Republicans down the ballot had a good Nov. 3. They have the opportunity to make it even better, to cement the Senate for two years, and force Democrats to climb down. But only if their priorities are straight.
Write to kim@wsj.com.
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Appeared in the November 20, 2020, print edition.
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