Re <<imaginary value ... Bitcoin ... fiat money ... still has the support of a treasury and a country with real productivity>>
I agree w/ you that fiat money has support, of the treasury, country w/ real productivity, requiring mathematically supportable debt only if by a combination of productivity increase and money dilution and taxation, each of the three vectors arguably leads to difficult to manage social issues - they be how we got top where we are.
Assuming more of the same is reasonable, knowing there are tail risks the expressions of which waiting for exogenous shocks and internal quakes, and neither are out of the question.
Bitcoin, whether a fraud or a bubble, a rebellion or revolution, has tolerance of the treasuries (except in China, for trading but not for mining) around the world, and support of entities and people w/ real productivity and sharing a set of issues bitcoin addresses ... value preservation, anonymity, anti-authorities / anti-control, anti-dilution, anti-fragile (until the authorities crack down in concert and collusion)
Question we ponder is that, “does a crackdown on bitcoin by authorities in some but not all domains, whether by taxation or by banning of trading) accelerate or retard bitcoin’s rise? Does marijuana cost more in Japan than in Oregon? Does gold cost more in Shanghai than Hong Kong?”
Seems to me the authorities must at some stage intervene in the crypto space, against all the hundreds and hundreds of coins, all at once.
Should and when they do so, after the noise dies down, what happens next? A guess, that most cryptos die, and a few might rise.
Until the crackdown, rise and rise more. Just like tulips only less fragile.
I have not decided whether Bitcoin in particular and crypto in general be frauds, bubbles, or whatever. The market is deciding, just as it did once w/r to Pets.com and Amazon.com
This night I bought some more GBTC. It’s energy is taking a rest, and so I store some more for the possible ramp coming. The temptation to trade BTC is strong, and so I must have some trading inventory. |
