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Non-Tech : Hvide Marine HMAR - High Growth, Undervalued

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To: Robert T. Quasius who wrote ()1/30/1998 5:11:00 PM
From: Grommit  Read Replies (1) of 547
 
more on boat supply/demand:

I received a copy of an article in "Upstream" - the international oil and gas newspaper. Dated Jan 23, 1998. The article discusses the supply/demand issues of supply boats. They make no conclusions themselves but provide some data and quotes from industry people.

A Raymond James analyst is quoted as a vessel glut is possible "but not of the magnitude which would cause dayrates to drop".

They agree a key factor is retirements. Oppenheimer says "A lot of junk boats out there which theindusrty need to get rid of ... lot of complaints of breakdowns and quality ... the market may not be as tight but not by enough to affect dayrates." Hey, didn't they just do the downgrade?

Laney Chouest of Edison Chouest Offshore (this is the company with 1/2 of the newbuilds) "only one ot two of our newboats will go into the spot market the rest are under contract to rigs AS THEY ARE DELIVERED".

They mention 19 new rigs operational in this year and most of 1999, which agrees with Mr. Hvide's Conf Call data. They mention 75 new OSVs to be delivered over the next 2 years, as compared to Mr. Hvide's 30 in 1998, 30 in 1999 and 10 in 2000. Things seem consistant. They mention the options which are potential builds. Mr. Hvide mentioned possible financing troubles with getting them built. I think TDW's comments would not make financing easier for the boats on option. I hope that that was the idea behind their turdball.

PS Did you hear the guy from "grommit securities" ask a question at the conf call? :o)
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