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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)

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To: Cymeed who wrote (13722)	1/30/1998 6:28:00 PM
From: TI2, TechInvestorToo	Read Replies (3) of 25960

I believe that the Korean stepper orders that are pushed out will be rotated to those customers who had later orders for steppers. In other words, I don't think the stepper companies are going to let a korean destined stepper to be built, and then sit around until they get cash figured out. They will ask other customers if any are ready to take the tool and ship it to them. So the downside not so big. In a similar way, I wonder if some pushouts to CYMER (for instance from CANON) could be a market share shift (for instance to ASML), in that case the lasers still need to be built and shipped, just not to the original intended. The cc mentioned that they are seeing market share shift between their customers. So if market is there, then shipments ok and maybe the downside is not so large. On the other hand, the cc talked a lot about matching orders and inventories and stepper manufacturing. I wonder if there wasn't some double booking of lasers when stepper demand was high and laser supply was a concern. Maybe this whole Asian flu thing is handy way to launder the fact that some of the backlog was in fact double booked. So the downside is real and already quantified and in the announcement. Any insights or comments ? TI2

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