Dave-
The NCES report looked fine. The market is simply WRONG. It's wrong just like it was wrong with SMTC. It is annoying in the short run, but in a year, we'll be glad the stock dropped. I know I wasn't thrilled with THQI 10 months ago (when it was around $7), but I bought more, and now it's above $20.
LUFK's chart looks fairly ugly in the short term, because of the 3 month downtrend. It's completely due to sympathy with the oil services sector and the fallen oil price. The stock is at its 200-day MA, and I would be surprised to see it fall below it, considering that Q4 earnings will be released in 2-3 weeks. The sole analyst (Raymond James) has a .74 estimate for Q4, bringing the 1997 EPS to $2.25. I'm fairly sure that LUFK will trounce that number. My estimate for Q4 is $1.00. As is typical with my estimates, they are probably on the high end of reality. Still, I believe that they are certainly possible. LUFK is trading at 11 times RJ's 1998 estimate, and less than 10 times my estimate.
THQI looks a good deal more bullish, technically speaking. The stock struggled with the 50-day MA for a few weeks, but it has since rallied toward its 1997 high--not there yet, though. The TA indicators are very favorable, as are the fundamental indicators, especially the Q4 report coming in the next few weeks.
SMTC is reporting in a few weeks also. It might be a few weeks before SMTC breaks the resistance at $28. The good earnings report should do the trick.
THQI, SMTC and LUFK are my 3 favorite stocks, despite the sell-off (and perhaps because of it), and they are the 3 largest positions in my portfolio. February should be a very good month for all 3 stocks.
Todd |
