Maurice,
This is from the Q1 release last year to put things in perspective.
"As of January 31, 1997, over 400 companies had selected BPCS Client/Server version 6.0 for implementation in over 2,000 sites worldwide. By the close of the quarter, 36 companies were live with object software, including 18 on version 6.0. "More and more customers are flipping the switch and going live with version 6.0," said Covey. The company is pleased with the rapid pace with which firms are going live. Typically, it can take two or more years for firms to go live with SSA's competitors' software.
Software license fee revenue rose to $65.1 million in the first quarter, up more than 35 percent in the same period of the prior year. Covey commented that, "SSA's software license growth illustrates client confidence and satisfaction with BPCS version 6.0." SSA added 50 new clients in the first quarter."
Where are we now? In Q4 license fees were $89.6 mill. There were 80 new clients. In Q1 based on BAANF,DWRX, and ORCL statements sales were good and Europe was strong. My estimate is about $80 mill for license fees this quarter. This would be a 23% increase, much higher than the estimates but I don't see why momentum in Q4 would drop off that much in Q1 since this includes NOV and DEC. With the much better financial picture (they actually make interest off their cash which offsets some of the convertible interest expenses)I expect earnings to exceed estimates. I believe analysts' firms and MM's are getting stock to participate when announcements are made. This is only my humble opinion but I believe the upside is more like 15 and the downside 5 so I've placed my bets.
Karl |
