Ref:
<... things are deteriorating fast for QCOM;.....
Comments anybody? >
Mike:
Can't agree that things look black for QCOM;
Obviously I could be wrong, but most recent developments raise my enthusiasm for their prospects, and would like to have more funds to "load up" on shares at these levels;
Supplier Concerns:
My guess is that supplier concerns are totally overblown as a basis for any specific QCOM problems; Keep in mind QCOM comments at the very recent CC --i.e. their biggest problem is buiding phones FAST ENOUGH to meet demand !!!
Third Generation:
Latest news on the 3RD GEN IPR , (while not yet as clear as we might like), appears now to be inevitably drawn toward a GOOD to EXCELLENT! result for the Q ---
Following an extended period where the whole 3GEN deliberation process appeared to be totally ignoring (as irrelevant) any QCOM views on the matter; Suddenly, even QCOM's worst GSM enemy's must acknowledge a QCOM 3GEN role/agreement/input as VITAL! to the whole standards process;
Thus, what appeared to be a basic future uncertainty on the QCOM horizon (i.e. Whether QCOM's basic CDMA property rights could be largely exorcized from future mainstream 3GEN systems ? ) now appears to be resolving itself in a very favorable manner ---openly recognized by all the key players as inevitably moving toward some kind of 3GEN QCOM licensing/royalties etc.
I'll agree that the vision for nearterm QCOM negotiation strategies on these critical 3GEN IPR matters are key; Talks will likely prove very difficult and contentious ; A very complicated set of longterm considerations will have to be assessed across a broad range of economic, technical, and political issues;
However, my guess is that the "QCOM boys" have been relentlessly working those basic issues for some time, while quietly monitoring "from afar" developments in the 3GEN center ring ; Obviously they'll have to achieve a very delicate balance regarding the level of royalties they will eventually accept, versus the "threshold of pain" for the other vendors;
QCOM has previously demonstrated an impressive set of successes in other such very tricky undertakings, such as: negotiating initial set of CDMAOne royalties and skillful lobbying for initial FCC acceptance of the CDMA standard;
Thus, IMHO the "boys" will succeed in 3GEN as well;
( Still a staunch believer !!! )
Stealthy |
