Scott,
You're with Netcom? And you say you're not hearing about Cisco? I find that hard to believe. Apparently you're not plugged in over there.
As for ASND's CSCC products, they are only in the RBOC's in the U.S. right now. In fact, there's was a post on this thread a few days back talking about the fact that ASND hasn't marketed the CSCC products outside the US in any significant way and that ASND was going to begin doing so. Can anyone find that URL? Also, this was posted as well.
bintec.de
As for ATM switch revenues, I posted the numbers...this isn't my opinion. This is fact. I should point out that these numbers are typically solicited directly from the vendors by the analysts. You'll note that ASND's success is mainly in RBOC's and ISP's.
As for ASND's wins. I have no doubt that they'll get some wins. Again that's not the issue. The issue is do they grow at or better than the market rate? This is what will drive the value of the stock... I know that ASND is king in the RBOC's. However I was surprised by your NTT statement. I don't think there's any CSCC product in NTT, but I could be wrong. I think ASND even mentioned that CSCC hasn't been marketed in Japan yet. So, you got me there. Is this an agreement or is the network deployed?
As for Williams. Williams is building an IP network much like QWST. This is the future and Williams will no doubt do well. There is an ATM core to this net, but the predominant portion of the network will be layer 3 products - from Cisco I'm told.
As for AT&T Worldcom. CSCC won that because AT&T didn't want to be tied to one manufacturer for both ATM and Frame. ATT said that they preferred the STRM products, but for business reasons had to go with CSCC. This is my understanding. BTW: How is that network rolling out? Is ASND/CSCC succeeding?
I could go on and on about the carriers that Cisco is selling to, or has agreements with. The one weakness however has been ATM products into the RBOCS. That's why this deal with US West is so important. It's every bit as important as ASND/CSCC getting WorldNet. In the end however, my point remains. Does ASND keep up with market growth in the face of stiff competition from Cisco and others? If you believe they do, then it's a buy!!! If not, then perhaps you buy ASND to speculate on an acqusition. I do agree with most on this thread that ASND is probably not a good short.
Gary (not Korn) |
