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Biotech / Medical : Immunomedics (IMMU) - moderated
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From: stockdoc7712/21/2020 8:23:58 PM
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Got vaccinated today. The next four weeks are going to be pretty ugly, looking at various models there is a huge 95% confidence interval of expected hospitalizations for the country so it is almost a wild guess between pretty bad and god awful. Worst case is 5-7k deaths/day by mid January but I'm hoping we can hold it down to 3500. By end of January though the vaccinations will start to have a huge effect on hospital admits and deaths that will accelerate into February and March. Just getting all the nursing homes vaccinated will take deaths down by 25%. My gut sense is that by end of March the pandemic will clearly be ebbing, and the bulk of high risk people will be vaccinated. At that point, the public pressure to return to normal (indoor dining, normal schools and universities) will be very high and will probably win out. The last piece, spectator sports, concerts, cruises, and other such very high risk settings will probably return by June. At that point I'm guessing about 150 million will be vaccinated. A large fraction of adults 18-45 will decline to be vaccinated, at least initially, as will children under 12. Employers will require vaccination in many job settings, especially if they feel they may have legal liability for exposing their customers or other employees to infection. Universities will probably require it of students, especially if living in a dorm. But I don't see a long term ban on high risk activities as being politically acceptable once daily fatalities drop below 50-100.
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