| | | strategypage.com Israel: No Easy Way Out Of This Mess
December 24, 2020: The West Bank Fatah government calls for war against Israel still produces a lot of attacks in the West bank. In the last year there have been nearly 600 rock throwing incidents, 90 stabbing attempts and twenty firebomb attacks. Fatah, the political party that has ruled all Palestinians until 2007 (when Hamas gained control of Gaza) and the West Bank since the 1990s openly calls for the destruction of Israel. Hamas won the last Palestinian elections in 2006 because they were seen as less corrupt than Fatah. Hamas was also much more into using violence against Israel, and that came with a cost to all Palestinians. When Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007 they refused to allow an any further elections. This left the Palestinians divided with Fatah still controlling the West Bank, where 60 percent of Palestinians lived. Holding elections is one thing; both Hamas and Fatah agreeing on the outcome is another matter. Both Fatah and Hamas openly condemn Arab states that recently made peace with Israel or are considering doing so. That means Fatah and Hamas are openly criticizing the UAE and Saudi Arabia, long the most generous Arab donors to Palestinians. No more, mainly because of the corruption that kept much of that money from getting to Palestinians that needed it. Fatah and Hamas are both turning to Iran for military and economic aid. At the moment Iran cannot afford to give much. Fatah sees Iran favoring Hamas and the Hamas plan to use subversion and violence to eliminate Fatah in a reunited Palestinian government. Fatah is desperate, having lost most foreign aid and about to lose more because of its refusal to stop diverting a large fraction of foreign aid to reward imprisoned Palestinians who have killed or at least attacked Israelis. The families of dead terrorists also receive payments. All this encourages Palestinians to undertake attacks.
The Fatah refusal to make peace with Israel is a major reason Israel has been able to establish diplomatic relations with a growing number of Moslem (especially Arab) states. Fatah and Hamas both use violence to prevent the emergence of any political opposition, so any new Palestinian unification election would present just two choices. Opinion polls indicate if a third party, one pledging to not act like Fatah or Hamas, could win. That option is strongly opposed by Hamas and Fatah and there is no easy way out of this mess.
Syria
Russia is trying to make the best of a bad situation in Syria by encouraging peace talks between Israel and the Assad government of Syria. This is referred to as the Russian Plan B, a desperate but plausible ploy to avoid the unwelcome presence of Iran and Turkey in Syria and take advantage of the Israelis eagerness to make peace, even with the Assads, if that got Iran out of Syria. That is something Israel and Syrians (and everyone else) can agree on. The war in Syria should be over by now but it isn’t because the foreign factions, especially the Iranians and the Turks, have unresolved issues. Iran is obsessed with destroying Israel and is not having much success at all. Turkey wants to eliminate Kurdish separatists (both Turkish and Syrian) from Syria and that is proving very difficult. The Americans want to keep ISIL down and support their Kurdish allies while Russia wants to prop up the Assad government in order to keep the airbase and port facilities arrangements they have obtained from the Assads. Discussions are underway and kept under wraps.
Yemen
The Iran backed Shia rebels in Yemen are now making a major effort to attack Red Sea shipping, which has an impact on Israel. These attacks are the result of Iran changing its tactics in Yemen. The Shia rebels are slowly losing territory to more numerous government forces. Saudi air defenses continue neutralizing ballistic and cruise missile attacks. In response Iran has switched to attempting to disrupt Red Sea commercial traffic by damaging tankers and cargo ships using mines and remotely controlled bomb boats. The Iranians have been shifting to naval strategy for most of 2020 and it is starting to pay off as more and more commercial ships are suffering damage, What the Iranians need is more successful attacks on Red Sea shipping, including a few large ships being sunk. Saudi Arabia and Egypt are very vulnerable to this Iranian strategy. D isrupting Red Sea traffic interferes with the growing percentage of Saudi Arabian imports and exports that move though Red Sea ports. The Saudis want to reduce reliance on Persian Gulf ports. Red Sea security is even more critical for Egypt. Nearly 20,000 ships a year pass through the Red sea headed for the Suez Canal, which earns Egypt nearly $6 billion a year in transit fees.
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