GM, I know nobody here can move the stock, but some people are wishing pretty hard. I guess my point was that I am more comfortable knowing I will participate. I have read most of Cary S.'s posts. His buy targets are 25, 20, and 15. If it doesn't drop that far he misses the rally. No one will disagree that someday AMAT will test and break old highs. We just hope it is sooner rather than later. I know I am rambling here but let me give the simplest view of three scenarios:
1.) AMAT falls to low 20s, teens or lower and never recovers. Chance of this happening IMO: 0.00. If this does happen, we will all be street people. <g>
2.) AMAT falls to low 20s, teens or lower, recovers, and makes new highs at end of cycle. Chance IMO: 50%. In this scenario I make say 56-26=30/share. Say Teri & Cary average down 25, 20 & 15 for average of 20. They make 56-20=36/share.
3.) AMAT breaks through 33, earnings, CC and visability are good and AMAT goes to 56 (somewhat faster than #2). Chance IMO: 50% I make my 30/share, Teri & Cary make nothing.
Bottom line: I cannot lose unless AMAT goes under, and I make 30/share if they don't. Teri & Cary have a 50% of making money.
Sorry for the long post, and I know this is the scenario in its most simplistic terms. Comments welcome and appreciated.
Robbie
|
