My End Of Year Review of MVIS
INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
MicroVision
MVIS (market cap is $0.788B was $0.194B)
MicroVision is a startup that's been starting up for decades. Their key technology is an oscillating mirror on a chip that allows light to be directed outwards (enabling very small projectors) or inwards (enabling sensors) or both (enabling interactive displays and commands.) The technology has already been used to incorporate projectors into smartphones. Other potentially valuable products would be LiDAR (laser radar for autonomous vehicles or in-home security systems), Head Up Displays in vehicles, interactive displays for the home (providing another way to interact with smart speakers and assistants) or commercial (think touch-free menus, cash registers, and store displays). The technology has the potential to disrupt the laptop and tablet and other flat panel display industry the way LCD/LED screens disrupted the CRT industry. Each display innovation created immense and positive disruptions in computers and electronics, as well as economies, industries, and daily life.
The company has great potential but has never sustained a positive cash flow based on product manufacture, licensing, or collaborations. Management emphasizes selling the company, seemingly in an admission of their inability to independently advance the company from startup mode, even after decades of effort. Similar companies working on LiDAR have been valued in billions, which would demonstrate a significant return over recent valuations. If successful as an independent firm, the valuations could be significantly higher than a buyout considering the subsequent growth as adoption and expansion as successful and profitable products were brought to market.
Much of the insights into the company comes from independent investors conducting impressive research, largely in the absence of company-supplied information. Management is historically reticent to reveal specific details of the status of product pipelines. While NDAs may explain much of the lack of information, other firms seem to manage to share more without violating financial disclosure laws or regulations.
For two decades the expectation has been "within the next several months or years there will be significant good news." And so it continues. Whether the news will be of a buyout or a successful product or both is a guess.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 (though the very first shares are gone). My patience has been revitalized thanks to the rocket-like rise from $0.15 to $9.74. My perseverance and majority of shares remain. Dilution no longer means that I have more than enough if the company finally succeeds and the stock reaches the heights I think are possible. I doubt I'll buy more at these prices, and may shed some shares if I think a rise is unsustainable.
(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog trimbathcreative.net ) |
