<..I was wondering if you got into TXN and ADI before they both took off...>
Nope. Got lucky and sold my ADI at 33ish early Dec. (right before I posted the likely H&Q number lowering, which occured Dec 4: Message 2868328 ). Sold my long held TXN in the upper 40's early Jan (a relatively small gain, but a profit nonetheless). I also exited INTC late Nov, and haven't gone back yet.
Was looking to pick up TXN in the mid-30's, but was unwilling to commit regardless, before Q4s were in. The worst of Asia is likely ahead, but the street may just look beyond Q1+2. There is a LOT of money on the sidelines, and a lot of new 401K. And S&P valuations just keep getting higher. And the more uncertainty in the rest of the world, the seemingly better the US looks relatively. I did get into LU several weeks back. I think the whole group (TXN, ADI, LU etc). are overbought. I really like all three, but especially LU because it is so diversified - DSP's, mixed signal, telecom. Eventually they NEED a datacom strategy, which would likely be easier to buy. The BIG market (IMO) will be HDTV - $400-600B. You can bet these 3 will be there. I'm more cautious on MOT, but they will rise in the same tide.
I'm currently betting heavier on WCII and digital microwave. I'm looking for a double there inside 12 months, and would ride it to a triple plus after that (if not before) as fixed "fiber" wireless takes off.
<.. Reason I still see you are expecting a pull back...>
I think our short term overbought condition will offer further entry points.
<..Steve you can never outsmart the market, memory chips and who has better DSP chips. <Brains has nothing to do with a Bull Market.>..>
Not sure what you mean, but money clearly can be made. My brain is my ally (beats a Ouiji board, anyway <g>). Not for the faint of heart, but NSOL since early Jan and GNTIY the last couple of weeks have been great recent performers for me. AWRE was a great 2 week trade from 11ish to 15ish. DRAM seems to have been stabilizing Message 3291895 , but I missed the MU run up from it's 50dma. Now that channels seem to have been flushed, Korean equipment selling should eventually ensure a DRAM resurgence. At some point I'll likely be back into TXN and ADI. And keep your eye on the FPGA market (vis a vis XLNX, ALTR and LSCC).
A recent surprise has been the Jan spike in PCs, and not just in Europe. Sources tell me 3-500% spikes are being booked domestically the last several weeks. Also expect more power for less - a P2 266 (though cacheless, and therefore better margins) sub-$1000 going into summer. People seem to be buying. Technology is still king.
Best of luck-
Steve |
