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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.
AAPL 275.13+1.3%11:21 AM EST
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To: GS_Wall Street who wrote (8103)1/31/1998 8:23:00 PM
From: Bill Jackson  Read Replies (1) of 213173
 
Greg; I think the thin clients will get some desktops in large corporations with fast intranets, and Java might make some headway there. It might be that Java needs to take a couple of years to develop infrastructure. I understand IBM, among others, is spending millions on Java.

Looking forward for 5 years I speculate that 500 Gig hard drives will cost what ten gig cost today. The fibre internet will be a reality. A lot of ISPs will vanish, both by consolidation and dead from fiber poisoning.

The thin client of that day will run over 1000 base optic, and will be quite fat. I think there will be a period of greater control over corporate desktops to cut the wasted time on the web.

However the convergence of win9x and NT will rule the desktop still.

I cannot see another OS chasing them away, unless AAPL gets a few things right tomorrow and keeps doing it for five years.

Even if Apple grows at 20% for five years it will stay at under 4%, as the Wintels are also growing that fast.

AAPL needs 5 years of 50% growth to even get anywhere.

94 (wintel) x 1.2 x 1.2 x 1.2 x 1.2 x 1.2 = 238

4 (AAPL) x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 = 30.38

That is 5 years of AAPL growing at 50% compound will get them to
12.7% market shares\ based on boxes. Even if they double every year for 5 years they will and up at 128, or around 53% of WIntel

Of course if Wintel stops it will be easier, faint hope.

Bill
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