Alice, thanks for an interesting link. (Off Topic?)
However, I think that applying the current Thai delinquency rate of 30% to Japan's banks and loans to other countries is flawed logic.
On what basis does this "think tank" justify applying Thai default statistics to Japan? Obviously Thailand is not Japan. The major difference is that Japan's economy is more diverse, more advanced, and more competitive than Thailand. As an example, Try to think of one Thai company that is truly world class like Sony, Toshiba, Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Kubota, Tokyo Electron, Yamaha, Canon, Fuji, etc. etc. These are all companies capable of kicking some major Occidental behind, especially when there are favorable exchange rates - remember the 80s?
Anyway, assume the 30% rate is in fact true. I'll agree that this is a great worst case number. Heck, I'll even assume that it is ALL written off. 34 trillion yen is about $300 billion US (rounding up to the nearest 100 billion) 30% of this is 90 billion.
90 billion is not chump change, but I believe that this considerably smaller than the amounts involved several of the US's recent crises, ie. the Texas & New England Savings & Loan problems, the various Mexican crisis, etc.
regards,
spiny |
