Terry, over the past year or so the CCI crossing above 100 has been very accurate in signaling the end of consolidation and beginning of next magor uptrend. Here is some data that bears this out. The first set of numbers are the date and price at the time of crossover, the second are date and price at the peak of trend following the crossover.
[ 12/16/96 - 1.31, 12/24 - 2.00 ] [ 1/13 - 2.00 , 1/21 - 2.75 ]
[ 2/6 - 2.75 , 3/7 - 4.00 ] [ 5/5 - 3.06 , 6/2 -5.06 ]
[ 6/19 - 5.25 , 7/8 - 7.00 ] [ 7/29 - 6.78 , 9/4 - 11.75 ]
[ 10/7 - 11.38 , 10/22 - 15.19 ] [ 11/19 - 15.50 , 12/9 - 18.56 ]
As you can see, going long following CCI rising above 100 was the prudent move all of last year. We just crossed over on 1/27, so it looks like we are into the next run. I have another indicator that has been quite accurate in picking the tops and it is telling me that we are approaching one, so I'm going to predict that we kiss 17 this week, pullback for a few days and then head north again to test new highs. I'm using the past to predict the future here so take this with many grains of salt.
Jay |
