Martin Armstrong chimes-in ...
These will identify the shift in trend to a dollar rally which appear is a low here in 2021 takes place, then we can see a rally into 2024
Dollar rally would either follow or portend an equity-crush / bond-rally, possibly making gold a better buy (albeit gold can and had in the occasional past rallied w/ gold). No idea about bitgold, guessing up.
ask-socrates.com
US Dollar into 2021 (PRO)
SUNDAY, 03 JANUARY 2021
BY: MARTY ARMSTRONG
The US dollar Index closed weak and as I warned at the WEC, it appeared to be headed down into a further decline into early 2021 influenced by the politics. The view is that under Biden, there will be no fiscal restraint so the traditional printing until the cows come home is the story, but Gates killed the cows to sell is alternative meat products. Nevertheless, there were no Yearly sell signals so we are not looking at a profound change in trend on a long-term basis.
What is not being considered is that because over 50% of the Dollar Index is the Euro, the lockdowns in Europe are far more devastating economically and the money printing will be far greater in Europe than the United States. In addition, the trend toward civil unrest is also greater in Europe because it began sooner. In France, there is the Yellow Vest movement which began over taxing fuel, but it is well organized and now the crushing of jobs is only creating even more discontent. This time, we could see the French lead the way instead of the French being inspired by the American Revolution during the 18th century.
The Yearly Bearish Reversal in the Cash Dollar Index lies at 87.60 level. January will of represent 10 months down from the high of March 2020 which was 102.99.
The support in 2021 lies at 88.45 followed by 84.74, 84.49, and 79.34. Monthly support during January begins at the 88.86 level.
The 2018 low was 88.25. A penetration of that low will bring down a Yearly Bullish Reversal to 89.64 slightly beneath the closing of 2020 which was 89.935.
From a timing perspective, we still see the major target as February where we also have panic cycles showing up the week of 02/22 but the strongest weekly target remains the week after the inauguration 1/25. We see the week of 1/04 as a minor target with rising volatility into the week of the inauguration – 1/18. We have back-to-back Directional Changes the week of 1/25 and 2/1. You would think that perhaps there will be turmoil over the electoral count on the 6th. We have a Directional Change on the 5th and the strongest target being 8th. That implies if there are objections to 7 states, they must break and debate each objection separately so perhaps we will not know the outcome on the 6th but rather the 8th.
At this point, we should focus on the Daily and Weekly Reversals. These will identify the shift in trend to a dollar rally which appear is a low here in 2021 takes place, then we can see a rally into 2024 which could also imply that the US lags behind on the whole digital currency move while it is Europe that is in serious trouble for its central bank is trapped with negative interest rates since 2014 and in the process after 7 years of this failed policy, they have no choice but to push ahead with Agenda 2030. |
