SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: FJB who wrote (13808)1/31/1998 9:33:00 PM
From: PAinvestor  Read Replies (2) of 25960
 
Hello thread, been a while. Will provide some info that you may find of interest:

1) The market currently expects that Korea will cut back their capex by some 30-50%. This is optimistic and it is more likely that it will be closer to a 70% cut back. Yes they are having difficulties procuring materials (polysilicon and equipment in particular) currently. It appears that some some the players may drop out of the race to eventually become foundry suppliers to the Japanese chip companies. Unfortunately they do not have the cutting-edge engineering skills that the Japanese companies possess to design the chips with smaller features. If your 64m DRAM die is on average 20% larger than a similar Japanese design why bother with the expense of gearing up your fab to etch at 0.25 micron when you can't get the yield enhancements (due to the overall large size of the die) and the subsequent lower cost to begin with? They never had that ability to begin with - and they knew it. The chaebol thought they could win a war of attrition with the Japanese and Micron. They lost and nearly bankrupted the country in the process.

2) Nevertheless Samsung will remain a major player (the market recognizes this too - the stock has more than doubled in the past week or so). DRAM prices will probably never see the lows that they saw in December. The Koreans have been forced to reign in their ridiculous expansion plans and the overcapacity it bought to the DRAM market. I believe that the memory chip makers will see better earnings ahead (which is why I am long MU) as a result.

3) The Japanese will continue to move headlong into DUV as will the European and U.S. chip makers. This will, I believe, more than offset any capex drying up from the Koreans. The market will eventually begin to discount this but not for a while. Korea has a few problems ahead of it still and the IMF will never allow the chaebol to recklessly expand as it did in the past. Regardless, recently announced capex increases from U.S. and European chip companies have almost offset the amount of capex that the Koreans are expected to cut. A point not many pundits talk about....

4) Still long CYMI as the long term picture remains excellent. In fact optical litho will probably still be used to etch 0.8micron lines. Sit back and relax everyone, CYMI will come through with earnings. Enjoy the slow, inexorable rise back.

Regards.......PAInvestor

Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News