For some reason this stock trades like it has a extremely small float.
Are you one of the folks with whom I spoke on the phone about exactly that point?
I agree with you, but find it somewhat puzzling. We all know that sharewise, we're very ugly. As far as we know, there are about 150 million outstanding, with about 30-50 million of those in the float. Since I've talked to some folks with a large number of shares, but who don't wish to go on record, publicly or privately (understandable -- I divvy mine up in 4 accounts partially out of the same motivation), I think that there are from 10-15M being pretty tightly held by longterm-minded folks (what's the total you show, Jens? I'd add about 3M to that from my conversations). A lot of tightly held shares? Definitely. However, only a fraction of the float. [side note: I've always hated that term "a fraction". Heck, 63/64 is a fraction, but a large one). I would really expect there to be an awful lot of float left.
The way the stock acts leads me to believe one of the following must be true:
1. The true free-trading float is much smaller than we think.
or
2. The MMs know they can get away with making it act small-float and it's in their financial interest to do so, so they do it.
Since having my eyes opened a bit wider by Mike Harb regarding MMs, I tend to shy away from theories that hint at collusion among MMs, but have to admit I think the 2nd possibility is more plausible than the first.
Anyone else have any other ideas why this stock frequently acts the way it does?
If big money ever finds ARET... Hold on to your seats,
Personally, I think the first good news release (not "planning", "letter of intent", "might" "is talking about", "mulled it over while sitting on the pot" or anything like that; "has been awarded a $xx million contract..." is the only thing that'll do) that comes out on BusinessWire is going to really make this thing take off.
Had the hydro gig been on BW, I think we'd all be sitting here wondering whether the financials would drop us below .05, or finally nudge us past .10. Just my opinion...
At any rate, I expect the K to be out Monday at the earliest (duh, Z!) or about Wednesday (delays have happened and always will), then the Q's a week (according to them) or two (my delay-expecting guess) after. Then I expect we'll see news one or two days (actually, half an hour later the same day would have the most dramatic effect) after the Q's. No, they haven't said there will be news, but it's been a while since news and I expect one or two have accumulated that they're purposely sitting on until it better suits them to release.
Oh, since I reported here first about my SI visit, thought I'd add that I stopped by there Friday and shot a game of pool with Brad (he beat me rather soundly, though I suspect he was going easy on me). I also finally met Jeff. He's as nice a guy as Brad, and a geek through and through, so of course I liked him.
Also met a gentleman named Chris, who was interviewing them (and asked me a number of questions) for an upcoming article in SmartMoney magazine. I don't think SI will be the focus of the article, but suppose it might. There's enough to do an entire article easily. But I think the article is more about how investors can use the internet to their benefit.
I talked about ARET quite a bit (among other companies -- but you all know what a talker I am <g>), and Chris wrote it down and asked quite a bit about it. I'm sure if ARET is mentioned at all, it might be a brief mention of this end of the spectrum stock-wise. But it'd be quite cool to see ARET mentioned. :) Not that it'd be uncool to see my name mentioned. :) :) |
