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The timing service advises ...
What is interesting is that regardless of which large degree wave mapping scenario is occurring, both suggest stocks will top in the coming weeks, to be followed by a massive plunge. My impression of the service have always been that it is balanced, and specifically guides the trading of ETFs on the up as well as down sides, always by buying calls or puts on ETFs (GLD, GDX, GDXJ etc etc), or directly of Ultra Bull- / Inverse- ETFs. The sample trade sizes are small (5-10K per trade advised, of a theoretical 1M portfolio), and I have not noticed that it would go over 20% allocation at max (meaning generally 80% cash), and even so pays large % of annual expenses.
I limit self to the GDX / GDXJ / SPY / QQQ stuff. I do not like the ultra- bull- / bear- ETFs.
I do not look at the charts, because cannot be bothered. I like bullet points.
I pay attention when it shouts Hindenburg Omen. It is not yet shouting.
I like to be ahead in the queue when evacuations are called for. Not the first, but ahead.
In any case, ... I quote, ...
Today's Market Comments:
Stocks fell sharply Monday, January 4th, 2021, on strong volume. Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a new Sell signal, including the Purchasing Power Indicator. The NASDAQ 100 Purchasing Power Indicator fell to a new Sell signal. Russell 2000 small cap Purchasing Power Indicator remains on a Sell signal. The sharp decline comes the day after our Phi mate turn date scheduled for Thursday, December 31st, 2020, a major turn date that was lined up with a major bottom in 2012.
Monday's drop came as we continue to see worsening large and growing Bearish Divergences between prices for the major averages and their 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicators, as well as their Demand Power measures, telling us a top is approaching that will lead to a declining trend of some significance. We also see a huge Bearish divergence between our Secondary Trend Indicator and the S&P 500. Divergences have excellent correlation with coming trend turns of significance. These are pointing to a significant decline starting in early 2021. This is a dangerous development for the stock market. Another plunge event is likely in 2021. Major negative news will accompany this plunge. This will provide an excellent opportunity for traders.
As far as pattern is concerned, we have the same comments tonight as in previous issues in December: There is a Jaws of Death Megaphone Topping pattern from 2017, that is a finishing component, completing a massive Rising Bearish Wedge pattern from 1986, which suggests that Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} is ending now. The coming plunge in 2021 would commence Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down. In this scenario, the 2020 March crash did not start {IV} down, but was a key tentpole in the Jaws of Death pattern, with the rally since March 2020 as the final wave (E ) up to complete Grand Supercycle degree wave {III}. We have updated charts in this weekend's report.
The other possibility is that Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down started with the February/March 2020 crash, as shown in the chart on page 34. In this case, stocks look to be inside wave (C ) up, which is the end of a double zig zag pattern for Cycle degree wave B-up.
Once that tops, a massive Cycle degree wave C-down should crash the stock market again. This coming wave C-down suggests some fearful news will accompany it in 2021. This is all inside Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down, which is a massive Bear market that we find ourselves in at this time. Inside this Bear market will be several huge overlapping waves, as we have seen so far in 2020. We annotate a possibility for the Bear market price path in chart on page 35. So far, prices are closely tracking this projection pattern.
Once this rising trend completes, possibly in early 2021, the next wave down, C-down of (A) down, will likely be another crash. But to reiterate, we would need to see a new Hindenburg Omen Crash signal for that to occur, and there is no H.O. on the clock at this time. Over the past 35 years, there have been no stock market crashes unless an H.O. was on the clock. The wave mapping warns 2021 could be unkind to stocks.
What is interesting is that regardless of which large degree wave mapping scenario is occurring, both suggest stocks will top in the coming weeks, to be followed by a massive plunge.
On Monday, Gold, Silver and Mining stocks rose sharply. Gold and Mining stocks rose to the upper boundary of declining trend-channels from the past several months. If they continue to rise from here, and break out above those boundary lines, we would have a strong case they are starting the next major rising trend.
Mining stocks key trend-finder indicators generated a new Buy signal Monday, as the HUI Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a new Buy signal, joining the 30 day stochastic.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators generated a Sell signal January 4th, 2021 and remain there Monday, January 4th, 2021. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Sell signal Monday, January 4th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on January 4th, 2020, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on January 4th, 2021. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months' time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Wednesday, May 20th, and remains there Monday, January 4th, losing 6 points (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 9. It is trending down, and will only need to fall below negative - 5 for a new Sell signal. The next sell signal will be the first since May 2020.
Demand Power Fell 7 to 413 Monday, while Supply Pressure Rose 14 to 408, telling us Monday's Blue Chip decline was powerful with deep pockets intervention supporting prices. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal November 4th, and remains there Monday, January 4th, 2021. But a huge Bearish divergence warns of a coming Sell signal and major decline.
The HUI generated a key trend-finder indicator Buy signal January 4th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal December 2nd, 2020, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on January 4th, 2020. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Long signal January 4th. On Monday, January 4th, Demand Power rose 19 to 404 while Supply Pressure fell 5 to 383, telling us Monday's HUI rise was powerful.
DJIA/SPY PPI Fell 15 to Negative - 11.32, on a Sell
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00 Slow 62.67 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 43.33 Slow 57.22 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 50.00
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 43.33
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 33.33
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 6 to Positive + 9, On a Buy
Demand Power Fell 7 to 413, Supply Pressure Up 14 to 408 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Fell to Negative - 87.76
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 3867.48
Plunge Protection Team Indicator -2.25, an "OFF" signal
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator -30.7 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 167 New Lows 5
Today's Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Neutral signal Tuesday, December 15th, 2020, and remain there January 4th, 2020. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on January 4th, 2020, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell on December 22nd, and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on November 3rd, 2020. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Long positions signal Wednesday, November 4th and remains there January 4th. On Monday, January 4th, Demand Power Fell 6 to 438, while Supply Pressure Rose 13 to 429, telling us Monday's decline was powerful with deep pockets intervention supporting prices.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal November 5th, 2020, and needs to fall below negative - 5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to negative -3.4 on Monday, January 4th.
NDX PPI Fell to 250.99, On a Sell
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 62.20 Slow 66.83 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 33.33 Slow 53.33 On a Sell
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -3.4 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Fell 5 to 438, Supply Pressure Up 13 to 429 Buy
RUT PPI Fell 5 to 163.49, on a Sell
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -158.2, On a Buy
Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal January 4th, 2021.
HUI PPI Rose 24 to 275.38 on a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 100.00, Slow 72.78 on a Buy
HUI Demand Power Up 19 to 404; Supply Pressure Fell 5 to 383 Buy
McHugh's Market Forecasting and Trading Report and this Executive Summary |
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