Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 235.24

+4.5%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (15203)	1/31/1998 11:32:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Brian, Talk about optimistic! Can I have some of what you are smoking? $70??? Just exactly who is going to buy all of the equipment to justify this price:earnings ratio over the next 12 months? IMO, we might see this price by Aug '99 but not before, there just isn't the latent demand for 300mm equipment yet that would propel AMAT's price to those levels, short to mid-term. I'm trying to stay as realistic as possible concerning the world economic situation and its' impact on equipment producers. I just posted a link to GM, read it and comment if you will. The recent semi-cycles have taken just about a year to 15 months from bottom to top to recover and the semi-mfgs tend to lag about 4-6 months(time wise)from the high/low points of the chip business cycle. If we take Oct as the start of the down cycle then that would place us at Jan '99 as the recovery point for the chip companies. Add 4-6 months to that and we are in the May-Aug '99 timeframe for the equip mfgs. techweb.com Comments??? Regards, BB

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