Thomas: My pleasure. Today, Bob Brinker reaffirmed his position
that the market is "on track" vis a vis his bullish projections
of new highs in spring/summer 1998. To be sure, Brinker pointed
to the new highs recorded last Thursday in the S&P 500 at the
$985 level and marked' gains in the DJIA, Wilshire Index, and
Nasdaq. In the same breath, Brinker noted the DJIA as lagging
the greater market manifest in the S&P 500. While the DJIA con-
stitutes "about 20% of the market", the S&P 500 captures "about
70% of the market", in Brinker's words. Still, Brinker is confident
that the DJIA will follow the other market averages to new highs
of at least $8300 before too long. Parenthetically, Brinker ob-
served with apparent relish the ongoing repudiation of the bears'
morose forecast for the US stock market and the emerging idea, ex-
pressed by Brinker long ago, that the Asian meltdown will not spell
catastrophe for said market. Indeed, Brinker once again noted the
inflation dampening effect of ailing Asian economies.
Brinker referenced Intel several times during the course of the
afternoon. He once more posited INTC as a trading vehicle and
alluded to his purchases at $69- with liquidation at $77 and sub-
sequent re-purchase. In response to a query, Brinker referred to
INTC as a current "hold", though I would presume that the "trading
vehicle" proviso has constant application here.
There was an interesting commentary regarding Compaq's $9.8 billion
merger with Digital Equipment. Brinker gave no impression he would
be a buyer of Compaq shares. He painted the merger as a battle in
a war with IBM for control of the market in "large computer systems."
Said war, Brinker asserted, would take ten years to resolve.
On the political front, Brinker quipped that Clinton, now enjoying
a post State of the Union blip upward in the polls, is "only one major
peccadillo from a 100% approval rating" in said polls. Brinker as-
serted that the probabilities currently favor his market neutral
scenario wherein Clinton would escape impeachment and linger
on as president.
One caller brought into question Brinker's recitation of a bullish
and potential triple bottom in the Japanese market given Brinker's
oft repeated eschewal of "technical market analysis." Brinker noted
that, while charts are excellent ex post facto "predictors", he has
no faith in them as immediate and true predictors of market events.
I gather that Brinker's notation of a triple bottom in the Japanese
market was, thus, more an academic than a bankable observation.
If any one has more light to shed on that particular academic con-
versation with said caller, I, for one, would welcome the illumin-
ation.
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