BB, no doubt there will be reductions in orders. The
accuracy of predictions leaves much to be desired.
Visibility is still very poor, and that can be seen
by comparing one story to the next. The jury is still
out. I've added some comments to excerpts from the the
articles you linked to.
The sharp drop from the $7 billion in 1996
investments to the $2 billion or less expected this
year had the equipment vendors at Semicon Korea in a
state of deep concern. In a normal year, Korea
accounts for about 10 percent of fabrication
equipment and test and assembly systems.
Normally we compare to the previous year (1997), but
that comparison wouldn't be dramatic enough.
Korean Chip Capital Spending May Be Halved
techweb.com
(01/21/98; 2:22 p.m. EST)
By Jack Robertson, Semiconductor Business News
South Korean chip manufacturers will spend about $2
billion on semiconductor equipment in 1998 -- about
half of what they collective spent in 1997 and 1996,
<snip>
In the fourth quarter 1997, semiconductor equipment
sales in Asia -- excluding Japan -- fell 17 percent to
$2.5 billion, according to Paul Davis, vice president of international operations at the Semiconductor
Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade
group,
<snip>
Meanwhile, Kim of the Korean chip association said
the worst "may be over in severe price cutting on the
16-megabit DRAMs." Kim said he believed
U.S.-based Micron Technology "has peaked on its
16-megabit production" so the rampant increases in
supply that crippled the market in 1997 may be
moderating.
So now the DRAM glut was Micron's fault.
Asian Flu Stalls Semiconductor Industry
techweb.com
(01/26/98; 12:11 p.m. EST)
By Anthony Cataldo and David Lammers, EE Times
Capital investments will be less than $2 billion in 1998,
down from about $3 billion last year, according to
reports from the Korean Semiconductor Industry
Association.
That would be a 33% decrease. The article on top said
50% decrease. And the 4th quarter fell by 17%. So,
depending on whether you're bull or bear - take your pick.
I hope nobody makes serious investment decisions
based on all this dubious information.
GM |
