ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts

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To: rimshot who wrote (14599)	1/7/2021 7:27:12 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) of 97457

OK, rimshot. I probably should have provided supportive evidence, but I've done this plenty of times for this recently, so I thought it would be redundant. Consensus estimates from Refinitiv/IBES are for 2021 FY earnings of $169.46 and jumping to $197.62 in 2022. KKR sees the same time periods as $174 and $203 respectively. I spit the difference between KKR's and Refinitiv/IBES for the $200 in 2022. GS is also in this range with its outlook. I've also said many times how earnings estimates start out high and get ratcheted down as the year goes by. I have been talking about the market discounting 2022 earnings since last June, so this isn't new. It's a fairly mainstream view that I have come to appreciate more as the market has continued its march. It's something that we saw in January 2018 as 2-years of tax cuts were discounted by the market in a single month. I don't use Rule of 20 as a guide for entries or exits. It's just a gauge to historically measure the market's valuation and a method that can be supportive of technical reads at extremes.

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