| | | Good question. It's now over 20 years since my annual amazingly precise and prescient 31 Dec predictions.
So what will the price of gold be in US$ on Dec 31st 2021 ?
I gave up because the normal rules reached a boundary condition, namely the event horizon of a black Scholes financial relativity theory singularity aka GFC.
After a few years, following huge dilution and market clearing, relative valuations started to make sense again.
But now, 0% interest, megatons of dilution and petapixels of debt, handed out willy by the nilly, free to a good home, with the word quadrillion now appearing in the lexicon, makes financial relativity theory calculation problematic due to speed of money dilatation difficulties.
In the good old days, gold would get a big rev up. But now, gigapixels of blockchains are swishing around as an easy alternative to problematic gold toting. Big brother can't steal your blockchain wallet but can confiscate 10kg of gold easy peasy.
Ignoring that hard stuff, I'll go with my theory that gold is made out of oil and with Tesla not needing oil, and Tesla = all other car companies, and aviation is near dead, not much oil is needed.
$50 per barrel looks about right for oil for 2021, despite dilution, implying $1,627 by 31 Dec.
The Federal Reserve is going to have to make US$ about 1% interest just to avoid mass panic. That will steady things and add some desperately needed confidence.
I'm considering offering my normal double your money back guarantee.
Mqurice |
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